Bitcoin (BTC) closed March in green, ending the longest monthly losing streak since 2018. Data suggests that the coming months may prove to be profitable for BTC.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin ended March 2% higher, marking the first green monthly close in six months.
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A similar streak in 2018/2019 led to an over 316% BTC price rebound over five months.
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Bitcoin price faces stiff resistance at $70,000-$72,000, where key trend lines converge.
Past multi-month downtrends were followed by 300% price gains
Historical price data from CoinGlass confirms Bitcoin printed its first green monthly candle in six months, closing March 2% higher after five straight months of losses.
“This is a massive dose of hopium,” analyst Ash Crypto said in an X post on Wednesday.
The analyst was referring to a possible shift in momentum, which might lead to a sustained recovery, as seen in previous cycles.
Related: Crypto Fear & Greed Index stuck on ‘extreme fear,’ but is there a silver lining?
The last time this happened was in 2018/2019 when BTC closed February 2019 in green, after six consecutive red months, as shown in the figure below.
This led to a reversal with over 300% returns the following five months, as Bitcoin recovered from the 2018 bear market.
“Last time BTC dumped 6 months in a row, it pumped the following 5 months in a row that came after!” trader Satoshi Flipper said in a Wednesday post on X.
If history repeats itself, the reversal may continue in April, suggesting that BTC price may have bottomed at $60,000.
Bitcoin’s bullish monthly close is a ”catalyst for fresh inflows into early April,” Trader Caleb said, adding:
“April starts with momentum.”
Bitcoin has a well-established tendency for significant price swings in April.
Since 2013, April has been a green month for eight of the past 13 years, with average returns of about 12.2%
However, Bitcoin also tends to move in the opposite direction to March in April, and this is true for nine out of the past 13 years.
In recent years, Bitcoin dropped in April after closing March in green, three out of four times between 2021 and 2024.
Therefore, while the end of past multi-month drawdowns suggests a rebound is due, data demonstrates that BTC price could also slide in April.
Watch these Bitcoin price levels next
Data from TradingView shows BTC price up 2.5% on the day to trade at $68,470 as the $69,000-$70,000 resistance remains in place.
Analysts expect Bitcoin’s range-bound price action to continue for longer, with important price levels to look for in case of a breakout.
These include the $70,000-$72,000 supply zone, coinciding with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 1w–1m cohort cost basis.
This is also where investors acquired approximately 650,000 BTC, marking a potential point of sell pressure, according to the cost-basis distribution data from Glassnode.
Breaking above this level could see BTC/USD revisit the $76,000 range high and eventually the $80,000 psychological level.
Zooming out, trader Sheldon Diedericks said Bitcoin could “push into resistance” at $83,000 on the monthly time frame, a key support level from April 2025. The 200-day EMA is also close to this area.
On the downside, the 200-week EMA at $68,300 and the 200-week SMA at $59,400 remain key levels to watch. Below that, the next major level is Bitcoin’s realized price around $54,000.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s bear market bottom could be formed once BTC price drops toward or below its realized price.
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