The US and Iran are at odds over nuclear negotiations just before Trump’s address. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have fallen to 7.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday and 26% a week ago.
The April 7 ceasefire market dropped as Iran denies active talks and Trump hints at a US pullout. The market now sits at 7.5% YES, with traders doubting a last-minute deal. The April 15 market remains at 18.5% YES, unchanged from yesterday but down from 34% a week ago, showing little confidence in a quick resolution.
Longer-term markets like April 30 and May 31 show more optimism, with odds at 36.5% and 55.5% YES. The biggest jump in odds is between April 30 and May 31, suggesting traders expect a potential catalyst in late April or early May.
The ceasefire market trades $1.3M daily in USDC, with significant order book depth. It takes $31,494 to move the April 7 odds by 5 points, showing a thick market. However, recent 2-point drops indicate sensitivity to news, signaling traders’ readiness to react quickly.
Military readiness and stalled talks suggest this is more than just noise. A YES share at 7.5¢ pays $1 if resolved by April 7 — a 13x return. This bet requires belief in rapid diplomatic progress within six days, a tough call given current rhetoric.
Watch for moves from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, or shifts in language from Trump or Iranian officials. Trump’s address could provide new insights or further polarize the situation.
Markets Impacted
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