The US-Iran ceasefire is now officially in place, halting US strikes on Iran. Ceasefire by April 7 odds are at 57% YES, up from 8% a week ago.
The announcement has shifted odds significantly. The April 15 market rose to 70.5% YES, up from 14% in 24 hours. April 30 odds are at 72.5% YES, up from 36% a week ago. Traders are confident the ceasefire will hold short-term.
The US forces entering Iran by April 30 market dropped sharply. Odds are now at 98.8% YES, down from 57% a week ago, showing reduced likelihood of US ground forces entering Iran. The ceasefire also eases pressure on the Iranian regime, with the regime fall by June 30 market at 11% YES.
Trading activity shows strong conviction. USDC traded was $3.7M in ceasefire markets over 24 hours. A 42-point spike at 10:33 PM was driven by $1.5M USDC volume, indicating belief in the ceasefire’s short-term durability.
The ceasefire is crucial but uncertain. The White House noted potential communication delays to IRGC units, suggesting uneven enforcement. At 43¢, a YES share for the ceasefire by April 7 pays $1 if it resolves, a 2.33x return. Confidence in diplomatic channels is key.
Watch for CENTCOM announcements and Iranian responses to ensure compliance. Any rogue IRGC actions or hawkish rhetoric could quickly change market dynamics.
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