Trump called a Situation Room meeting amid the renewed crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Odds of a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 sit at
The diplomatic meeting market dropped despite increased diplomatic activity, suggesting traders are skeptical about imminent talks. The largest move was a 6-point spike at 7:32 PM, but it quickly reversed. With $5,026 in daily actual USDC trading, it takes just $283 to move the price by 5 points, making the market vulnerable to single large trades. Explore the market.
WTI Crude Oil prices in April are at 1.4% YES for hitting $160, up slightly from 1% yesterday. The Hormuz blockade and US readiness for strikes are pushing oil prices, though cautiously. A 25-point spike in the crude market suggests sensitivity to the geopolitical situation. See the oil price market.
The peace deal market for April 22 plummeted to
Market liquidity varies widely. The peace deal market is deep at $1.6M in daily USDC, but the diplomatic meeting market’s $283 depth means single trades can move it. A 5-point move in the peace deal market requires $9,366, showing far more resistance to isolated orders.
A YES share in the diplomatic meeting market at
Watch for Trump’s next moves and any signals from Tehran about potential talks. A tweet or press statement could swing these markets fast.
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