US crude exports have reached a record 5.2 million barrels per day during the ongoing Iran conflict. The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market sits at
Market reaction
The record export figure has not moved the crude oil all-time-high market, which remains at 1.8% YES. Traders are not pricing in immediate price spikes. The Crude Oil Predictions for June market, tracking whether crude hits $90 by end of June, lacks specific current odds data, but the export record and Strait of Hormuz disruption point toward upward pressure on that contract. The US-Iran nuclear deal market dropped from 7% to 2.6% YES, a move driven by broader geopolitical tensions rather than the export data itself.
Why it matters
Record US exports at 5.2 million barrels per day mean the US is filling supply gaps left by Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This volume gives the US more leverage over global pricing. The nuclear deal market’s collapse to 2.6% reflects how unlikely traders consider diplomatic resolution, which in turn supports the case for sustained supply disruption and higher crude prices through June.
What to watch
Statements from Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman or Alexander Novak could shift expectations on production levels. EIA updates on weekly export and inventory data will confirm whether the 5.2 million barrel pace holds. Any escalation around the Strait of Hormuz would directly affect the crude oil June predictions market. A YES share on crude hitting $90 by June could offer outsized returns if supply disruptions continue at current levels.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
