Bitcoin is closing in on its fourth consecutive green weekly candle, rising 5.64% this week to hit $78,000. The Polymarket contract asking whether Bitcoin will dip to $60,000 by April 30 sits at
Market reaction
The rally marks Bitcoin’s longest weekly winning streak since May 2025, driven by easing geopolitical tensions following the US-Iran ceasefire. Bitcoin has climbed 25% from its “Iran War” low of $62,000, a $15,000 gain over four weeks. The April 30 contract shows no meaningful expectation of a downturn.
Trading volume, however, is thin. The combined 24-hour face value for the “Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?” market is $0. The order book is shallow enough that $503 would move the price by 5 percentage points, meaning even a modest trade could swing the odds significantly.
Why it matters
At 0% YES, the market is pricing in virtually zero probability of Bitcoin falling back to $60,000 within the next week. Sentiment has shifted from fear to greed on the back of the ceasefire, and the four-week price trajectory has made a $15,000 retracement in days look implausible to traders. The thin liquidity cuts both ways: the consensus is overwhelming, but it wouldn’t take much capital to challenge it.
What to watch
Monitor Jerome Powell and Larry Fink for any statements that could shift sentiment. Oil prices and any changes to the US-Iran ceasefire status are the most direct catalysts that could reintroduce downside risk to Bitcoin.
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