Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu hasn’t been invited to Washington, according to his office. The odds of Netanyahu’s departure by June 30 sit at
The lack of an invitation comes as GOP lawmakers discuss authorizing continued military action against Iran. The Netanyahu out by June 30 market is relatively stable, down only slightly from 6% a week ago. Meanwhile, the US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026 market is at 0.5% YES, down from 2% yesterday, with the deadline tomorrow.
Traders are pricing in diplomatic isolation for Netanyahu but not enough to meaningfully raise the odds of his departure. The May 31 contract at
Trading volume on the Netanyahu markets is low compared to the US-Iran peace deal market, which saw combined USDC volume of $498,141 in the past 24 hours. The order book for Netanyahu’s departure requires $16,447 to move 5 points, meaning it would take real money to shift the odds. The peace deal market is thinner at $6,238 to move 5 points, making it more susceptible to a few large trades.
The missing invitation points to a lack of coordination between the US and Israel as the US-Iran conflict deadline approaches. The snub might indicate increased diplomatic pressure on Netanyahu, but at 5.5% for a June departure, traders aren’t expecting a sudden exit. For the peace deal, a YES share at
Watch for statements from Netanyahu or shifts in US diplomatic engagement, and upcoming congressional votes on military action against Iran. Either could move both the Netanyahu departure odds and US-Iran peace deal pricing.
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