SpaceX is gearing up for what could be one of the most significant IPOs in market history, targeting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion.
The numbers behind the mega-IPO
Revenue estimates suggest the company could generate between $15 billion and $20 billion by the 2025-2026 timeframe. Even at $20 billion, a $2 trillion valuation implies a price-to-sales ratio somewhere around 100 to 125x.
SpaceX acquired Elon Musk’s AI venture xAI for approximately $250 billion, effectively rebranding itself as a combined AI and space infrastructure platform.
The offering structure itself is designed to create scarcity. SpaceX is expected to sell less than 5% of its equity in the IPO, with up to 30% of that allocation earmarked for retail investors.
The Bitcoin treasury angle
SpaceX reportedly holds a significant Bitcoin treasury position. On-chain data from Arkham Intelligence values the holdings at $637 million, while other estimates have placed the figure closer to $373 million. The discrepancy likely reflects different measurement dates or methodological differences in tracking corporate wallets.
If SpaceX goes public at anywhere near a $2 trillion valuation, it would instantly become one of the largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holders, joining the ranks of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Tesla.
What this means for investors
On valuation, a 110-125x price-to-sales ratio requires sustained, exceptional revenue growth for years to come. Starlink’s addressable market covers underserved rural areas, maritime users, aviation, and government contracts. Competition from Amazon’s Project Kuiper will intensify, and regulatory and spectrum challenges vary by country.
The xAI acquisition cost approximately $250 billion, meaning the combined entity needs to execute to justify the combined valuation.
If SpaceX goes public and its Bitcoin holdings remain intact, buying SpaceX stock becomes an indirect way to gain Bitcoin exposure alongside aerospace and AI. Tesla experienced a related dynamic: its Bitcoin holdings became a talking point on earnings calls, sometimes overshadowing operational performance.
The specific language around Bitcoin in the IPO filing, whether SpaceX treats it as a strategic hold or a tradeable position, will signal how seriously the company views crypto as part of its long-term treasury strategy. If the allocation is closer to $637 million than $373 million, SpaceX would debut as one of the most significant corporate Bitcoin holders in the world.
