Bets on the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff topped $16 million in total volume on prediction platform Kalshi, which gave crypto-backed candidate Ken Paxton a 96% chance of defeating incumbent John Cornyn heading into Tuesday’s vote.
The Kalshi platform had consistently favored the Democratic challenger in the House race as well, with Christian Menefee’s odds holding firm since February.
Two PACs with ties to the cryptocurrency industry are behind millions of dollars in advertising spending tied to both races.
The Stakes Behind The Spending
Texas voters cast ballots Tuesday in two runoffs — one statewide, one in the Houston-area 18th congressional district. On the Republican side, Paxton faced Cornyn for the US Senate seat.
On the Democratic side, Green faced Menefee to determine who runs in November’s general election. The outcomes could shape the balance of power in Congress when the new session begins in 2027.
Source: US Federal Election Commission
Protect Progress, which is affiliated with the Ripple- and Coinbase-backed Fairshake PAC, reported spending $5 million on ads backing Menefee. It spent another $2.8 million on ads that ran against Green, whom the PAC described as “actively hostile” to digital assets.
Reports disclose that Menefee also drew the endorsement of the Blockchain Leadership Fund, a committee backed by Anchorage Digital and Chainlink Labs, though that group had not reported any expenditures as of Monday.
An Unusual Advertising Strategy
Not all of the ads focused on cryptocurrency. At least one spot funded by Protect Progress attacked Green over his opposition to US President Donald Trump — with no mention of crypto or blockchain anywhere in the ad.
A local commentator who appeared on a FOX26 segment said he saw 12 television commercials in a single day paid for by the Protect Progress PAC, pointing out that the same group of people funding those ads are also among Trump’s primary financial backers.
The Senate race drew spending from a separate PAC. The Fellowship PAC, backed by Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald and Anchorage, reported a $500,000 expenditure in support of Paxton — a move that came roughly 24 hours after Trump endorsed Paxton and criticized Cornyn for being slow to back him as a Republican presidential candidate.
Prediction Markets And What They Showed
Kalshi gave Menefee a 91% chance of winning the Democratic House primary. Rival platform Polymarket showed similar odds for both candidates in their respective races.
Under the current Republican-led Congress, lawmakers have already passed cryptocurrency-friendly legislation, including the stablecoin GENIUS Act, giving the industry a clear interest in who holds these seats when the next session convenes.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
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