Bitcoin has climbed about 3% to $64,300 after crude oil dropped below $72, and reports that the United States and Iran would continue peace talks revived risk appetite across crypto markets.
Summary
- Bitcoin climbed above $64,300 as falling oil prices and renewed U.S.-Iran talks revived risk appetite.
- A $79.5 million short squeeze helped drive the rally, with $65,000 remaining the key resistance.
- Analysts say a breakout above $65,000 could target $68,000, while rejection may send BTC back toward $62,000.
The rebound followed two volatile sessions in which fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and Tehran’s attacks on American bases pushed WTI crude toward $75 and drove Bitcoin down toward $62,500.
President Donald Trump had declared the interim ceasefire “over,” but subsequent reports of continued negotiations helped oil extend Thursday’s losses. WTI still remained on course for a weekly gain of more than 4%, leaving traders alert to another geopolitical reversal.
U.S. macro data added support after the economy created only 57,000 jobs in June. The weak reading increased expectations for faster Federal Reserve rate cuts, while comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that inflation risks had eased pulled Treasury yields and the dollar lower. Bitcoin benefited as investors moved back into non-yielding assets.
Glassnode data showed spot selling pressure had eased after a prolonged distribution phase, while the Coinbase Premium Index rose as U.S. demand recovered. The market also absorbed Strategy’s reported $216 million Bitcoin sale earlier in the week without breaking the $60,000 area before buyers returned.
Bitcoin needs a $65,000 close to extend the rebound
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin broke above $63,000 and reached an intraday high near $64,480. CoinGlass data showed about $79.5 million in short liquidations over 24 hours, and traders buying back bearish positions helped push BTC higher.
The three-day liquidation heatmap places the nearest large leverage pocket around $64,700 to $65,000, directly above the current price.
The Fibonacci structure drawn from $67,311 to $57,806 puts the 23.6% retracement at $65,068, while $63,681 now serves as the first support. A 4-hour close above $65,000 would clear both the Fibonacci barrier and the daily resistance line near $65,006.
According to analyst Ted Pillows, “BTC is back into the $64,000-$65,000 resistance zone.” Pillows added that a successful reclaim could push Bitcoin toward $68,000, while another rejection may send the asset back toward $62,000.
Momentum has improved, although the charts have not confirmed a lasting trend reversal. The 4-hour Aroon Up reading has reached 100%, compared with 21.43% for Aroon Down, and the Supertrend has turned green with support near $61,945.
On the daily chart, the MACD line has crossed above its signal line while both remain below zero, and Chaikin Money Flow has risen to 0.10 as buying pressure returned.
A loss of $62,000 would reopen the downside
The same heatmap shows a dense liquidation band near $61,000 to $61,200, which could draw price lower if Bitcoin fails at $65,000. The next chart levels sit at $62,559, $61,437 and $59,840. A break below the Supertrend support at $61,945 would weaken the recovery and expose the late-June base near $58,000.
Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin remains close to its weekly 200-period moving average and a high-time-frame support zone. One weekly close below the average was recovered quickly, but he warned that closes below roughly $55,000 could accelerate the decline.
Geopolitics remains the main external risk. Renewed attacks around the Strait of Hormuz could lift oil, strengthen the dollar and reverse the move into risk assets. Bitcoin remains above $63,681 for now, but bulls still need a decisive close above $65,000 before the rebound can target $68,000.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
