© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: European Union flags fly outside the European Commission in Brussels, Belgium November 8, 2023. REUTERS/Yves Herman/File Photo
By Andrew Gray
(Reuters) – Ukraine is hoping for a major political and financial boost from a European Union summit this week as its war against Russia’s invasion grinds on – but Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is blocking agreement on the issues most important to Kyiv.
Here is a short summary of what Ukraine hopes to gain from the summit – which takes place on Thursday and Friday – and the obstacles it faces:
INVITATION TO EU MEMBERSHIP TALKS
This is the biggest potential prize for Kyiv, according to Ukrainian and EU officials. Eventual membership of the EU and NATO are part of Ukraine’s long-term strategic goal of anchoring itself in the West and freeing itself from Russia’s orbit.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive body, recommended last month that EU leaders agree now to start accession talks with Ukraine. A second decision would still be needed – possibly in March – to agree a negotiating framework.
But all decisions related to future accession require unanimity among the EU’s 27 member countries and Orban has insisted he will not agree to give Kyiv the green light, arguing Ukraine is too corrupt and does not meet other criteria.
Some EU officials say they believe Orban wants to use the EU’s support for Ukraine as a campaign topic ahead of European Parliament elections next June, something that would delay any start of talks with Kyiv.
Further complicating the discussion, some countries such as Austria and Croatia want leaders also to agree to advance Bosnia’s EU membership bid if Ukraine gets the go-ahead, in the face of opposition from others.
Membership negotiations often take many years, as a candidate country has to reform to meet EU standards on a wide range of issues including the economy and the rule of law.
50 BILLION EUROS IN FINANCIAL AID
The European Commission has proposed granting Ukraine 50 billion euros ($54.04 billion) in economic aid over the next four years under a so-called Ukraine Facility as part of a mid-term top-up of the EU’s seven-year budget.
Most countries have said they are in favour of the 50 billion, a mixture of grants and loans, which Ukrainian officials say would be crucial in filling budget gaps.
But some countries have linked their support for the Ukraine cash injection to getting other things from the budget review, such as more money to tackle migration.
Even if a broader budget package could be agreed, Orban has also said he is opposed to the 50 billion for Ukraine. As budget decisions also require unanimity, that could force other EU members to set up their own separate fund for Kyiv, or offer short-term assistance instead.
MILITARY AID
Since Russia’s all-out invasion, European countries have provided billions of euros in arms and ammunition through an EU-run military aid fund, the European Peace Facility (EPF).
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell proposed to put such support on a long-term footing with up to 20 billion euros ($21.61 billion) over four years.
But that proposal has run into heavy resistance from the EU’s biggest financial contributor Germany, which has argued countries should now focus on providing bilateral military aid to Ukraine.
Diplomats say the 20 billion figure is almost certainly dead but countries are debating whether to pledge in the summit declaration at least 5 billion for Ukraine in the EPF for next year.
($1 = 0.9253 euros)
