(Bloomberg) — The euro climbed with European stock-index futures on speculation Marine Le Pen’s far-right party will struggle to win an outright majority in French elections, easing investor concern that Europe’s second-largest economy was headed for a more radical policy shift.
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Futures on French government bonds edged higher, while those on German bunds dropped after the first round of voting showed Le Pen’s National Rally in front of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance, albeit less comfortably than some polls projected. A very strong showing for her party would have increased the odds of expansive fiscal policy in France, whose deficit already exceeds what’s allowed under European Union rules.
Most Asian shares rose, with Japanese and South Korean benchmarks both gaining. Chinese equities slipped after a report showed factory activity contracted for a second month in June. While data showed the Caixin manufacturing gauge edged up last month, Bloomberg Economics said the marginal improvement did little to counter the worrisome message from official surveys. Hong Kong financial markets are shut for a holiday.
“We are starting off in Asia with that sense of relief that the far-right parties did not get the kind of majority that was feared,” Charu Chanana, a market strategist for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, told Bloomberg Television’s David Ingles and Stephen Engle.
In addition to French politics, investors will be looking to the European Central Bank for clues, she said, adding that “there’s been some sense of stability for the euro zone economy after that first rate cut, but we certainly don’t look like we’re out of the woods yet.”
France’s second round of voting will be held on July 7. The French political world is now embarking on a period of horse-trading. In constituencies where three people qualified for the runoffs, the third-placed candidate can withdraw to boost the chances of another mainstream party defeating the far right.
Japan Confidence
Confidence among Japan’s large manufacturers rose, data on Monday showed, leaving the door open for the central bank to consider an interest-rate increase later this month. The yield for the nation’s 10-year bond rose 2 basis points to 1.07%.
One in three economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicts a rate hike at the BOJ’s next gathering. The yen dropped to the lowest level since 1986 last week, prompting some analysts to flag a heightened risk of a rate move as Governor Kazuo Ueda has pledged to watch the yen’s impact on inflation closely.
A swath of data indicated the US biggest economy is cooling without lasting damage to consumers. US consumer sentiment declined by less than initially estimated on expectations inflationary pressures will moderate and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge marked its smallest advance in six months. Ten-year treasuries were little changed on Monday.
“Going into the second half, there’s a lot of election election uncertainty and we think the dollar will be the best risk-off hedge,” Alex Loo, foreign exchange and macro strategist at TD Securities, told Annabelle Droulers and Shery Ahn on Bloomberg Television. “We do like its appeal as a safe-haven currency.”
In commodities, oil was little changed as traders weighed China’s economic outlook and geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East. Gold was also little changed.
Key events this week:
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Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Monday
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Indonesia CPI, Monday
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India HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Monday
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UK S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI, Monday
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US construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, Monday
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ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Monday
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Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speaks, Monday
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RBA issues minutes of June policy meeting, Tuesday
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South Korea CPI, Tuesday
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Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Tuesday
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks, Tuesday
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ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Tuesday
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Australia retail sales, Wednesday
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China Caixin services PMI, Wednesday
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Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, PPI, Wednesday
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Poland rate decision, Wednesday
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US FOMC minutes, ISM Services, factory orders, trade, initial jobless claims, durable goods, Wednesday
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ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Wednesday
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New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Wednesday
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Sweden’s Riksbank issues minutes of June meeting, Wednesday
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Australia trade, Thursday
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Brazil trade, Thursday
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UK general election, Thursday
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European Union provisional tariffs on China EVs set to be introduced, Thursday
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ECB publishes account of June’s policy meeting, Thursday
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US Independence Day holiday, Thursday
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Philippines CPI, Friday
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Taiwan CPI, Friday
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Thailand CPI, international reserves, Friday
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Eurozone retail sales, Friday
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France trade, industrial production, Friday
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Germany industrial production, Friday
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ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Friday
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Canada unemployment, Friday
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US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
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New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
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S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% as of 12:50 p.m. Tokyo time
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Hang Seng futures fell 0.4%
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Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) rose 0.1%
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Japan’s Topix rose 0.4%
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Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3%
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The Shanghai Composite rose 0.3%
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Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 1.1%
Currencies
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The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
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The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0752
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The Japanese yen was little changed at 161.04 per dollar
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The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.3016 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
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Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $63,373.65
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Ether rose 2.3% to $3,495.2
Bonds
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The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.39%
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Japan’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 1.070%
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Australia’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.38%
Commodities
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Matthew Burgess.
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