Mortgage Rates Today, Monday, November 17: Kind of a Big Jump

If you’re here looking for lower mortgage interest rates, today is definitely not your day.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.32% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 13 basis points higher than Friday and 16 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Right now, it’s not clear what the Federal Reserve will choose to do at their next meeting, with analysts split over whether another cut is coming. Lenders had previously assumed that borrowing rates would fall in December, and they had factored this assumption into mortgage rate offers. Now that central bankers’ next move is a lot less certain, it’s likely that rates could continue to rise.

The government shutdown may be over, but we’ll be feeling its effects on economic reporting for a long time. The shutdown kept the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from gathering vital inflation and unemployment data, which are two main elements that the Federal Reserve considers when setting monetary policy. The next Fed meeting is Dec. 9-10.

Some analysts were hopeful that we’d somehow get retroactive data once the shutdown was over, but White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters last Wednesday that October CPI and jobs reports will likely never be released.

“All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired,” she said, “leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period.”

This means that even though the federal government has reopened, economists may still have to rely on alternative data sources (not to be confused with “alternative facts”) for guidance.

This week, the Nerds will be watching the National Association of Realtors’ Existing Home Sales Report, which measures sales and prices of existing single-family homes for October.

It’s also likely that BLS will publish a weekly jobless claims report on Thursday, which it has not been able to do since Sept. 25. Multiple Fed presidents are also scheduled to speak throughout the week, which could provide additional insight into how central bankers are weighing unemployment and inflation.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.82% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

• Location and property type

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.