Bitcoin (BTC) heads into the November monthly close hanging by a thread below $90,000.
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Bitcoin traders hope for a modest recovery and even a return above the $100,000 mark after a brutal sell-off.
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BTC price action still has to contend with the aftermath of its latest “death cross” on daily timeframes.
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New data suggests that speculators are absorbing coins distributed by long-term holders.
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Thanksgiving week offers a brief yet data-rich period for risk assets.
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Crypto market sentiment is on the rebound as stocks sink deep into “extreme fear.”
Is Bitcoin emerging from the wreckage?
Following its latest local low of $80,500 last week, Bitcoin remains highly uncertain as the November monthly close approaches.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows the $88,000 mark currently acting as a price ceiling.
Traders are as split as ever, with long-term bearish predictions mixing with modest optimism.
“Bitcoin has reclaimed the 4H SMA-20 for the first time in 2 weeks,” trader BitBull noted in an X post Monday, referring to the 20-period simple moving average on the four-hour chart.
“On the shorter timeframe, $BTC is looking good now. A weekly close above $92,000 will make a bullish case for a rally towards $105K-$110K.”
Further hope came from Daan Crypto Trades, who argued that the weekly structure was still “intact” despite a major support collapse.
$BTC It is clear by now that Bitcoin has fully lost its Bull Market Support Band.
This had roughly been supporting price all cycle, with a few smaller deviations below.
But this recent move down has made it so there’s over a $20K+ gap to get back to the band.
At some point,… pic.twitter.com/dL15LFlMix
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) November 23, 2025
Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe, meanwhile, described Bitcoin’s latest three-day chart candle as “great.”
“These are usually created around bottoming formations of the markets, and as the current sentiment and indicators are more heavily overextended than FTX, I wouldn’t be surprised to see $BTC trading between $90-96K in the upcoming week,” he told X followers.
Van de Poppe referred to the crypto market’s reaction to the implosion of exchange FTX in late 2022, an event that led to the final phase of the last bear market.
BTC price faces death cross dilemma
The coming days will form a key test for Bitcoin market strength as the price emerges from a classic bear signal on daily timeframes.
The latest “death cross” on BTC/USD, formed when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the 200-day equivalent, hit on Nov. 15.
Its implications vary according to where Bitcoin is in its price cycle, but under current conditions, a major recovery is sorely needed to prevent a lengthy downtrend.
“Note that prior death crosses marked local lows in the market,” commentator Benjamin Cowen wrote in an X post on the topic last week.
“Of course, when the cycle is over, the death cross rally fails. The time for Bitcoin to bounce if the cycle is not over would be starting within the next week.”
Cowen warned that if such a “bounce” failed to materialize, the 200-day SMA would be the target for a lower high, thus extinguishing hopes of a bull-market comeback.
“If no bounce occurs within 1 week, probably another dump before a larger rally back to the 200D SMA which would then mark a macro lower high,” he stressed.
The 200-day SMA currently sits at $110,130.
As Cointelegraph reported, price losing the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) two weeks ago caused a stir, having not seen a weekly candle close below it since March 2023.
Updating X followers, trader and analyst Rekt Capital showed that the 50-week EMA now aligns with a macro trendline, potentially reinforcing its status as resistance.
“It just so happens that the 50-week EMA (purple) tends to be approximately confluent with the Macro Downtrend (black),” he wrote alongside a chart on Sunday.
“Turning the 50-week EMA into resistance (or even overextending briefly beyond it but failing to turn it into new support) while also rejecting from the Macro Downtrend would be a sign of weakness and confirmation of a Lower High.”
Speculators step in
Bitcoin price volatility has sparked drastic change among investor cohorts, with multimonth lows dividing responses.
New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant this week suggests that the BTC supply is moving from long-term (LTHs) to short-term holders (STHs).
“Long-Term Holders are heavily distributing and selling, while Short-Term Holders are buying and accumulating,” contributor CryptoOnChain summarized in a “Quicktake” blog post.
The post examined the rolling 30-day position change among LTH and STH entities, defined as those hodling for over and under 155 days, respectively.
While “distribution” characterizes LTH investors, newcomers, traditionally considered more speculative in their trading habits, are absorbing their coins.
“This group, often driven by market excitement, is now ‘Accumulating’ at high prices,” CryptoOnChain continued, noting that the overall transfer has hit 63,000 BTC.
Cointelegraph previously reported on the panic among speculators caught off guard by the market drawdown.
The cohort’s spent output profit ratio (SOPR) — the proportion of coins moving onchain in profit or loss — reached 15-month lows near 0.927 over the weekend.
Thanksgiving week brings back old data
The coming US macro week may be shorter than usual due to Thanksgiving, but traders will have little time to rest.
The knock-on effect of the government shutdown means that a backlog of economic data is making its way to market — and each print can impact sentiment and asset performance.
The coming days will see September’s number in focus, with both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index due out.
Q3 GDP and initial jobless claims add to the mix, meaning that by the time Thanksgiving begins, traders’ view of the economic outlook may have changed considerably.
“We have a short but busy week ahead,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter commented on X.
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on waning expectations for further interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
The latest odds from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicate that expectations of a 0.25% cut at the Fed’s December meeting are now around 70%.
In the latest edition of its regular analysis series, “The Market Mosaic,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted that Fed officials had themselves flipped more hawkish on the outlook.
“The minutes of the Fed’s most recent rate-setting meeting also noted that ‘many participants’ suggested that it would be appropriate to ‘keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year’ regarding the fed funds rate,” it observed.
Mosaic Asset nonetheless suggested that US stocks were “oversold” and thus potentially due a classic Santa rally into year end.
“Recent conditions across breadth are also favoring a rally, which comes as seasonality turns into a big tailwind during this holiday-shortened week,” it added.
“There are already signs late last week that buying pressure is rising.”
Daily relative strength index (RSI) on the S&P 500 briefly slipped below 35 last week, marking its lowest reading since April.
Crypto leads in sentiment rebound
The crypto market sentiment is showing tentative signs of recovery as it surpasses rock-bottom readings in traditional markets.
Related: Bitcoin $200K soon or 2029? Scott Bessent hangs at Bitcoin bar: Hodler’s Digest, Nov. 16 – 22
The latest numbers from the Fear & Greed Index and Crypto Fear & Greed Index give crypto bulls potential for optimism.
After hitting its joint lowest levels for 2025 last week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has almost doubled, sitting at 19/100 on Monday. While still in “extreme fear” mode, the Index contrasts with stocks, which have helped produce a low of just 11/100 on its TradFi equivalent.
This represents a change from before, when crypto sentiment led risk assets lower. Now, crypto’s uptrend may foreshadow a broader recovery in risk assets.
“Bitcoin’s sentiment across social media has officially dipped to its lowest point since December 11, 2023,” research firm Santiment revealed Friday.
“According to bullish vs. bearish comments on X, Reddit, Telegram, and others, retail is capitulating and panic selling at a significant level we haven’t seen in 2 years.”
At the same time, Kobeissi reiterated that a clear news or macro trigger had not accompanied the comedown in both crypto and stocks.
The correction, it argued, was “structural” in nature and more a result of leverage and liquidations.
“Leverage is amplifying shifts in investor sentiment,” an X thread on the topic read.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
