Neil Robson, head of global equities at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, says the mix of policy easing, moderating inflation and a powerful AI-driven investment cycle sets a positive tone for equities into 2026.
“The AI-fuelled capex cycle could reach $3.5 trillion by 2030. This is transformational — it extends far beyond the tech sector, with AI capex now contributing more to US GDP growth than traditional consumption,” he said.
Robson expects US earnings to be a key driver of returns. “Our expectations are for robust growth with upside surprise potential. Companies appear to be adapting well to the new environment of tariffs and cost pressures, with estimated earnings headwinds contained to 3 to 5%.”
He believes market leadership will broaden, benefiting regions and sectors beyond US mega-cap tech.
“We expect continued strength in the US, but Europe and Japan offer compelling opportunities. Defence, financials and small caps also look capable of delivering appreciation.”
On diversification, Robson warns against hidden concentrations as the AI cycle spreads across industries.
“Diversification is crucial in 2026. Leadership is broadening and investors need to be mindful of exposures.”
In Europe, he highlights fiscal expansion, infrastructure and defence spending — particularly in Germany — as drivers of growth, while remaining cautious on political risks in France.
On Japan, he points to economic reform, modest inflation and improving corporate focus on returns and capital efficiency, saying the transformation is taking hold and supporting a more favourable equity environment.
“Valuations are elevated, but with falling rates and accelerating earnings, we believe there is room for further expansion into 2026.”
