Trigger warning: I’m going to write about the upcoming midterm elections—but if it helps, I’m not going to be partisan about it. This should be a pretty straightforward topic, but lately social media has been rife with speculation that the upcoming midterm elections will somehow be canceled. And while election-related fear-mongering is hardly new, it’s usually a dull buzz. This year, whether you blame exponential cultural polarization, social media echo chambers, or the rain, election-cancelation fears have grown into an unmistakeable roar.
It’s alarming to be sure. But are the people who are worried about this stuff wrong, or was 2024 actually the last “free and fair” American election? To get some answers, I talked to attorney Chad Peace, an expert in U.S. elections law and a legal advisor to the Independent Voter Project, a non-partisan non-profit organization devoted to encouraging voters to participate in the electoral process. I started by asking Peace point-blank how likely he thought the chances are of the midterms being outright canceled. “Pretty close to 0% would be my guess,” he says.
Who runs midterm elections? (It’s not the federal government.)
The unlikelihood of midterm election cancelations comes down to how they’re structured. Under the U.S. Constitution, states run their own midterm elections and are required by law to hold them every two years. While the Constitution and federal laws provide a general framework for how the midterms should work, their actual administration is handled by state and local governments. It is a highly decentralized process, and that’s by design. “It’s very clear in the Constitution that the states have the control over the time, place, and the manner of elections, and the reason it’s so clear is to prevent the very concerns that we’re [seeing] right now,” Peace says.
Debunking hypothetical election cancelling scenarios
Chad and I discussed several hypothetical scenarios (if not outright conspiracy theories) about how the elections might be canceled. To make this part of our conversation more scannable, I’m going to present it in Q&A format, with my questions in bold and Chad’s responses in regular text. Remember, these are just the facts.
Does the president have any authority cancel midterm elections?
There could be some executive authority to change [election] rules, but there’s not really any executive authority to cancel them.
What about an executive order? Can that cancel elections?
I’d be hard pressed to find an executive order that’s gonna cancel elections or really be enforceable against the states. At the end of the day, the states have extraordinary authority to conduct elections.
What if the government declares martial law?
Even under martial law, the states are going to conduct elections. Will it be an interesting situation? Yes. I don’t think it’s going to come to that level, but even during the Civil War, we had elections.
Does declaring martial law pause the Constitution?
No.
Does the president certify the winners of midterm election?
No.
Does Congress have a way to cancel midterm elections?
There’s no way to cancel them. Congress can do a lot of stuff, but at the end of the day, it’s very clear in the Constitution—and there’s a reason it was so clear—that the states have control over the time, place, and the manner of elections.
What do you think so far?
Could a state cancel its own midterm elections?
It would [also] be pretty hard for a state to cancel [its own] midterm elections. Could they have emergency authority and say, “we really need to postpone”? Yes. [There’d be] a fight, but eventually you’re going to have to have elections. Historically and constitutionally and within the laws of most states, elections will go on. Whatever side you’re on politically, I’m pretty sure the American electorate isn’t ready for elections not to be held. That’s pretty fundamental across voter ideology.
OK, they’re not going to cancel midterm elections, but…
The narrow question of whether midterm elections will be canceled in 2026 has an easy answer: no. But that doesn’t mean the 2026 election cycle will necessarily be “normal.” There’s no way to predict how midterm elections might be affected by various congressional, state, or federal actions, and this uncertainty is the real fuel for the cancelation rumors. “The real concern is what level of legitimacy do our elections have?” Peace says. “I don’t think we’re at the point where we’ve lost all legitimacy, and people are saying ‘these people aren’t really our leaders.’”
No matter where you are on the political spectrum, these are strange times. But they aren’t the first strange times the nation has ever experienced. “Every time has its uniqueness, but I don’t think [our current political climate] is totally unprecedented,” Peace says. He points to the protests during the Vietnam War as another, fairly recent example of significant political shifts in the U.S. “It reoccurs all the time in our history. It happens when you see significant political shifts and realignment.”
No one knew how the Civil War or the great Depression would end while they were happening, but elections still occurred, and we’re still here. “America and our electorate have had an amazing way of coming back to a place where we make it [through]. We make it, and we move on,” Peace says.
What to do if you’re stressed out about the midterm elections
If you’re freaking out about the legitimacy of our upcoming elections, doomscrolling social media probably won’t help, but volunteering might. “Get involved. Go to your local registrar and say, ‘I want to be an election observer,’” Peace says—particularly if you’re non-partisan. “A non-partisan, independent person who is involved and aware and observing the facts on the ground, I think, has an incredible effect on assuring the electorate that things are legitimate and fair.”
A gratuitously off-topic fun fact about elections expert Chad Peace
Along with having an epic name and being an expert in US election law, Chad Peace is the executive producer of upcoming film Attack of the Killer Tomatoes: Organic Intelligence. This gives him way more credibility in my eyes.
