Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are on track to post a fourth consecutive month of net outflows as Bitcoin (BTC) approaches a fifth negative monthly close in February. The slowdown is visible across the shrinking fund balances and the bearish rolling net flow data, especially when measured against competing asset ETFs.
With Bitcoin price and the spot ETF holdings trending lower since October, investors are searching for answers on what the future may hold for BTC.
Bitcoin ETFs dominate headlines
Net assets held in US spot Bitcoin ETFs peaked near $170 billion in October 2025 and now stand at $84.3 billion. The cumulative net inflows have fallen to roughly $54 billion from the $63 billion all-time high. Since July 2025, cumulative net flows have totaled just $5 billion, underscoring the sharp drop in capital inflows.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. tracked seven sessions between Feb. 12 and Feb. 19 and found the net ETF outflows totaled 11,042 BTC. Feb. 12 marked the largest single-day reduction at 6,120 BTC, or about $416 million. The Feb. 17 and Feb. 18 sessions saw back-to-back outflows of 1,520 and 1,980 BTC, respectively. Only two sessions were positive, with the Feb. 6 session adding 5,900 BTC to the funds.
Adler said that three consecutive positive sessions are needed to confirm renewed accumulation in the ETFs. Until then, the flows continue to act as a source of supply for the market.
The macroeconomic data align with the cooling trend. The ETFs have shed about 87,000 BTC since November 2025, including roughly 15,000 BTC in February. The total ETF balances now sit near 1.26 million BTC, down from the 1.36 million BTC peak.
The selling pressure from the largest BTC funds has been measured. BlackRock’s IBIT holdings declined to 759,000 BTC from 806,000 BTC, a 6% reduction. Fidelity’s FBTC dropped to 186,000 BTC from 213,000 BTC, a 12.6% decline.
Bitcoin price has fallen far more sharply than the ETF balances, while the spot market demand has appeared insufficient to fully absorb the broader market pressure.
Gold steals the spotlight from the BTC ETFs
Over the past two years, the Bitcoin and gold ETFs have rotated leadership based on the 90-day rolling flows. The Bitcoin 90-day inflows peaked near $16 billion in March 2024, cooled to $3 to $4 billion between June and October, and then surged to $21.6 billion in December 2024.
The gold ETFs took a different route. The flows stayed negative until July 2024, then accelerated to $30 billion by April 2025. During March and April 2025, the Bitcoin 90-day flows slipped to negative $2 billion.
Gold peaked again at $36 billion in October 2025, while the Bitcoin inflows faded into the final quarter. In January 2026, the gold flows reached $29 billion before easing to $21 billion by mid-February as Bitcoin flows remained in negative territory.
The data show a repeated handoff between the two assets. The periods of weakening Bitcoin ETF demand aligned with the surges in gold inflows, particularly between March and October 2025.
In relative terms, the gold ETFs captured incremental capital as investors leaned toward the asset with smaller price swings and the longer track record during risk-off phases.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs shed $166M as BTC heads for worst start in years
“Restrictive digestion” hits the Bitcoin demand
ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen classifies the first quarter of 2026 as a “late-cycle restrictive digestion” phase for the equities and the crypto markets.
The US Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening in December 2025, halting the balance sheet runoff, but the monetary policy remains restrictive relative to the market growth expectations. The federal funds rate still sits above the 2-year Treasury yield, while the 10-year yield trades near 4.1% and the 10-year real yield holds around 1.7%–1.8%, keeping the financial conditions tight.
The positive real yields mean investors can earn inflation-adjusted returns in the fixed income markets, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin.
Cowen noted that in the prior tightening cycles, Bitcoin price weakened before equities showed stress. In 2019, BTC price rolled over months ahead of the broader weakness in equities.
Historically, the durable ETF inflows have followed the falling real yields or a clear easing cycle. Neither condition has developed yet, which may explain the slowdown in demand for Bitcoin ETFs since October 2025.
Related: Bitcoin ignores US Supreme Court Trump tariff strike amid talk of $150B refund
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