Bitcoin Investment Thesis Still Intact Despite ETF Exit, Analysis Says.

Bitcoin (BTC) will see “purification” as a new wave of institutional money stays long BTC for decades, says EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson.

Key points:

BTC has become a “high-beta tech position,” thanks to ETFs and institutional involvement.
Bitcoin ETF sellers will give way to longer-term institutional buyers, analysis predicts.
Stablecoin supply needs to recover to upend the bearish trend.

Bitcoin ETF moves “not a store of value”

In an X post on Tuesday, Jackson predicted more stable BTC price strength in the future despite the current institutional exodus.

“BTC didn’t fail as an asset. It succeeded as an ETF. And that’s the problem,” he summarized.

The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to see regular net outflows, compounding already weak price action and underscoring Bitcoin’s bearish trend change that hit in October 2025.

Jackson notes that currently, Bitcoin moves in lockstep with BlackRock’s iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV). BlackRock also runs the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).

“From $126K to $63K. Every time IGV sells off, BTC sells off with it. That’s not a store of value. That’s a high-beta tech position with a different logo,” he continued.

“IBIT changed who owns Bitcoin.”

IBIT hypothetical growth of $10,000 investment since launch (screenshot). Source: iShares

In contrast to the 2021 bull market, institutions have become the “marginal buyer” this cycle, while retail investors have piled into tech stocks. With gold hitting new all-time highs, Bitcoin is currently getting left behind — but that can and will change.

Jackson is eyeing an end to the IGV sell pressure and the reemergence of stablecoin supply expansion on exchanges — an important bullish trigger.

“But here’s what the bears are missing. Every cycle, the weak hands get filtered out. And every cycle, what replaces them is longer-duration capital,” he explained.

“2017: retail sold at $20K. 2021: funds sold at $69K. 2025: ETF allocators are selling at $63K.”

Looking beyond Bitcoin’s “institutional exit”

The new wave of institutional money in the years to come will have an entirely different ethos — one that is music to the ears of long-suffering BTC hodlers.

“What comes next? Sovereign wealth funds. Corporate treasuries. Pension capital. Money that doesn’t rebalance into quarters. Money that doesn’t correlate to IGV. Money that holds for decades, not cycles,” Jackson forecast.