Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chugani say Bitcoin (BTC) may have already found its floor with the 50% retrace witnessed since last October, and the firm is sticking with its ambitious price target of $150,000 by the end of 2026 for the cryptocurrency.
The firm argued that the market’s changing structure—shifting from retail-driven speculation to one increasingly supported by exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate balance sheets, and structured capital—is altering how Bitcoin behaves during downturns and may lengthen the current cycle.
Are Institutional Flows Changing BTC’s Price Behavior?
Bitcoin has spent the past few months consolidating between roughly $65,000 and $75,000 after several failed attempts to break higher resistance walls at $76,000 last week. Despite this, Bernstein notes the sell-off lacked the cascade of liquidations that characterized earlier cycles.
The analysts view that muted volatility as evidence that the market has matured: long-term holders dominate supply, ETFs now account for meaningful ownership, and institutional on-ramps have added steadier sources of demand.
Bernstein highlighted several concrete metrics to support its outlook. The firm estimates that nearly 60% of BTC’s supply has been inactive for more than a year, a concentration of long-term holders that tends to blunt short-term price swings.
ETFs, too, are shaping the ownership landscape; collectively, they hold about 6.1% of the total Bitcoin supply, which Bernstein says improves market stability.
Those institutional flows, the analysts argue, are helping Bitcoin “outperform” even through corrections, as exchange-traded fund outflows this year have reversed and bank-led custody and product offerings expand.
$200,000 Bitcoin Possible By 2027
Another focal point of Bernstein’s analysis is the role of publicly traded companies that accumulate Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, received particular attention.
Bernstein reaffirmed an Outperform rating and a $450 target for the company, and noted how it has weathered the roughly 50% drawdown from last October’s peak. Strategy’s resilience, the analysts say, stems in part from how it sources capital.
According to Bernstein, Strategy’s buying this year has, at times, exceeded new Bitcoin issuance, meaning the company has absorbed a substantial share of incremental supply even as prices fell.
But Bernstein also warns of attendant risks. A prolonged downturn could force corporate holders to refinance debt on worse terms or sell holdings as obligations come due, and a tightening in capital markets might reduce firms’ ability to raise fresh funds.
So far, Bernstein says, Strategy has managed those exposures conservatively and shown an ability to navigate deep correction cycles without overextending leverage.
Taken together, these developments lead Bernstein to a bullish medium-term view. The firm continues to expect Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, potentially culminating in a peak near $200,000 by the end of 2027.
That scenario rests on sustained institutional demand from ETFs, continued accumulation by corporate holders, and the maturation of market infrastructure that reduces the likelihood of new sell-offs.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
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