Bitcoin (BTC) faces a new macro test as markets increasingly bet on the US entering recession in 2026.
Key points:
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Bitcoin could face a new challenge in the form of its first recession after the COVID-19 crash.
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US recession odds surge as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns over oil prices.
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Bitcoin’s high correlation with “extremely oversold” stocks continues.
Moody’s puts 12-month recession odds near 50%
Data highlighted this week by Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, shows recession odds nearing 50%.
Bitcoin’s next bull run could come courtesy of a US economic downturn, and market participants see the latter as more and more likely this year.
“Moody’s Analytics raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs increased its estimate to 30%,” Adler noted on X.
Prediction traders agree, with US recession odds reaching 36% on Kalshi — the highest reading since September 2025.
The US-Iran war and its impact on global oil prices lie at the heart of the surge. Recent claims by both sides about dialogue to end hostilities and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz have caused confusion throughout risk-asset markets.
“That’s keeping upside pressure on oil prices, which is recently crossing a key threshold historically associated with recession,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company commented in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
Mosaic said that oil jumping 50% above its long-term trend, a phenomenon now playing out, “has been seen before or during nearly every recession over the past 50 years.”
“Oil prices are directly correlated to headline inflation, where a $10 increase per barrel can push inflation higher by 0.20% or more,” it added.
Major players echo those concerns, including Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock.
“We’ll have a global recession,” he told the BBC this week about the consequences of Iran staying a “threat” to the global economy, even if the war itself ended.
Bitcoin stays tied to “extremely oversold” stocks
Bitcoin has had little experience of recession in its lifespan of less than 20 years.
Related: Gold slides as traders eye sub-$50K BTC: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
In 2020, a US recession from February to April preceded a period of major BTC price upside after BTC/USD initially joined risk assets in a global crash in March.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s correlation to US stocks has become stronger this year, potentially increasing the potential for a relief bounce.
“While the uncertainty over inflation and the outlook for monetary are broadly weighing across the market, conditions are very favorable to see at least a short-term rally unfold,” Mosaic commented.
“Various measures of investor sentiment and positioning are pointing to excessive bearishness in the market while breadth metrics are extending to extremely oversold levels.”
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