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The S&P 500 is up over 10% in the first 6 months of 2023. What has prompted this bull revival?
From a fundamental perspective, one may speculate with varying degrees of accuracy but never with certainty. This is one of the major challenges/limitations of sifting through news items to make an informed investment decision.
From a technical perspective, it is far simpler, particularly when looking at the higher timeframes.
Below is the S&P 500 monthly timeframe:
If one puts their feelings and opinions aside, there is little to dispute that the price has moved up as a result of the weekly 200 simple moving average.
Savvy investors who understand the importance of this critical moving average will be little surprised. The w200sma has held firm as support in 2011, 2016, and 2018 ( we can ignore the blip caused by CV19 in 2020 as a black swan event), and price patterns tend to have a habit of repeating, so are we seeing the start of the next bull run?
Or are we seeing temporary strength before further weakness?
There are two numbers to look for when getting a feel for market sentiment.
- Is the number of stocks trading above their daily 200sma on the increase? You want to know what’s changed in the past week, month and few months.
- Are stocks breaking out and printing new ATHs? You need to know what’s performing well and what is not. Without this information, you cannot make informed decisions.
Throw in the third filter of good performance history, and you have the spine of the criteria to narrow down to the best high-probability stocks that are likely to make it into the portfolio.
The mistake budding investors make is to buy stocks for the long term. It’s not efficient, and how you end up lumbered with stocks you should have exited a long time ago.
Instead, you constantly want to be scanning sectors. You then want to narrow down to the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors.
For example, the tech and communication services have underperformed this year, whilst energy and health care have performed well.
This resulted in stocks like MCK being up 50% in 2022, with the S&P 500 down 25% and PYPL down 80%.
Below are three stocks Benzinga will be closely monitoring through 2023.
Clearside Biomedical, Inc (NASDAQ: CLSD)
Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: TSCO)
McDonald’s Corp (NYSE: MCD)
Nokia (NYSE: NOK)
Founded in 1865 and headquartered in Espoo, Finland, Nokia Oyj provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions worldwide, operating through four segments: Network Infrastructure, Mobile Networks, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies. The firm has come back to the fore with the advent of a new generation of flip phones and the fact that the consuming public realizes that Nokia never vanished, specifically because the firm has so many government and industry-wide contracts, offering a range of services.
RBB Bancorp
Founded in 2008 and headquartered in Los Angeles, RBB Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Royal Business Bank that provides various banking products and services to the Chinese-American, Korean-American and other Asian-American communities.
Tips for Reviewing the S&P 500 and Trending Stocks
Stocks that are printing new highs coupled with the S&P 500 increasing have a much higher chance of trending and returning significant profit compared to undervalued stocks.
Why? Because they are moving in the direction of the overall market, and there is little resistance above price. It is commonplace for stocks to move 100% to 200% over a 12 to 24-month period, which is typically how long I hold my positions before rebalancing my portfolio.
Buying cheap or undervalued stocks are likely to keep on dropping or, at best, remain in a sideways market returning little reward for your risk and often ending up being an unpleasant journey.
You will be familiar with the expression to catch a falling knife, a situation investors regularly find themselves in, to their frustration.
Aligning with the market and trend following is a far more efficient approach compared to value investing.
The best approach, for now, is to apply patience and wait for the price of the S&P 500 to confirm a bull trend above the daily 200sma before adding any new stocks into the portfolio.