Bitcoin Gains 4% As Soft US CPI Boosts March Rate-Cut Odds

Bitcoin (BTC) gained at Friday’s Wall Street open as a fresh US inflation surprise boosted the mood.

Key points:

• Bitcoin price action heads toward key resistance after US CPI inflation data cools beyond expectations.

• Crypto becomes a standout on the day as macro assets see a cool reaction to slowing inflation.

• Traders stay wary on overall BTC price strength.

Bitcoin spikes on soft January CPI data

Data from TradingView showed up to 4% daily BTC price gains at the time of writing, with BTC/USD reaching $69,190 on Bitstamp.

The renewed upside came after the January print of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell short of expectations.

As confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), core CPI matched estimates of 2.5%, while the broader reading was 2.4% — 0.1% lower than anticipated.

Reacting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that CPI inflation was now at multiyear lows.

“Core CPI inflation is now at its lowest level since March 2021,” it wrote in a post on X. 

“Odds of further interest rate cuts are back on the rise.”

Kobeissi referred to the prospects of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its next meeting in March. As Cointelegraph reported, market expectations of such an outcome were previously at rock bottom, not helped by strong labor-market performance.

After the CPI release, odds of a minimal 0.25% cut remained at less than 10%, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Continuing, Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, argued that when viewed through the lens of Truflation, an alternative inflation meter, the CPI drop was “not really a surprise.”

📌RE: CPI Release

Not really a surprise there if you have been following the @truflation CPI number which has plummeted sub-1% already…

IYKYK pic.twitter.com/GPEUqaSNZI

— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) February 13, 2026

Elsewhere on macro, gold attempted to reclaim the $5,000 per ounce mark, while the US dollar index (DXY) sought a recovery after an initial CPI drop to 96.8.

US stocks, on the other hand, failed to copy Bitcoin’s enthusiasm, trading modestly down on the day at the time of writing.

Analyst eyes current range for BTC price higher low

Considering the outlook for BTC price action, market participants had little reason to alter their cautious positions.

Related: Binance teases Bitcoin bullish ‘shift’ as crypto sentiment hits record low

“$BTC Still consolidating in this falling wedge,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in his latest X update. 

“Attempted a break out yesterday but got slammed back down at the $68K level. That’s the area to watch if this wants to see another leg up at some point.”

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on the significance of the $68,000-$69,000 zone, which plays host to both the old 2021 all-time high and Bitcoin’s 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).

“Whether you like it or not: Bitcoin remains to be in an area where I think that we’ll see a higher low come in,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe predicted in his own forecast. 

“It’s fragile, for sure, but it doesn’t mean that we’re not going to be seeing some momentum coming in from the markets.”