Bitfinex Alpha says weakening demand, macro headwinds and a turn in spot ETF flows now “dominate” Bitcoin’s price path as it drifts back toward its monthly open.
Summary
- Bitfinex says bitcoin’s direction is increasingly driven by spot ETF capital flows as demand weakens and macro headwinds build.
- After failing to break range highs, bitcoin has slipped back toward its monthly open, with recent upside “driven more by short liquidations than spot buying.”
- Continuous net outflows from bitcoin ETFs show institutions “actively de‑risking,” slowing the market’s capacity to absorb sell pressure, Bitfinex Alpha argues.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) next big move will hinge less on halvings and more on whether spot ETFs turn from a source of selling back into a source of sustained demand, according to Bitfinex Alpha’s latest market update. The research team says the current trend is “under dual pressure from weakening demand and a deteriorating macro environment,” with ETF capital flows now the key variable in determining whether the market can absorb supply. Their note lands as bitcoin trades back near its monthly opening level after failing to break out of its recent range, and as US spot ETFs log a string of net outflows.
In the report, Bitfinex Alpha stresses that bitcoin’s recent bounce was “driven more by short liquidations than by spot buying,” pointing to derivatives data that show funding flips and liquidations clustering around failed pushes above resistance. That pattern matches other March analyses, where firms such as Investing.com highlighted how moves through the 70,000–72,000 dollar band were fuelled by “thin liquidity pockets” and forced covering rather than organic spot bids. Once those squeezes faded, price action lost momentum and rolled back toward support, revealing what Bitfinex calls “insufficient upward impulse” from real-money buyers.
