Can Apple Shares Surge Past $300 This Year?

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Shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) have been making up for lost time in the year’s second half, now up more than 26% in the last three months, putting the iPhone maker up just shy of 11% year to date. Undoubtedly, not a whole lot has changed about the AI story. Many investors still perceive the $4 trillion Magnificent Seven titan as a bit behind in the race. But, at the same time, the relative lack of AI awe has yet to convince iPhone users to switch.

Perhaps the AI boom has yet to enter its prime when it comes to the everyday consumer. Either way, Apple users won’t have to wait long as the company enters a new year with ample updates (that much-awaited Siri update could pave the way for an impressive 2026) and new products to get excited about. As we head into the holiday season, the iPhone might have a chance to really flex its muscles. And while there’s a lot of enthusiasm following comments made in the third quarter about the holiday season up ahead, I do find it confusing as to why the stock has barely budged since the report.

Of course, Apple stock has never been the biggest mover on earnings results, even if the numbers were better than expected. Either way, I find that the solid quarter and upbeat guide, which hasn’t yet been met with a sustained move higher in the stock, could offer investors an entry point ahead of a slew of timely catalysts that could last through the end of next year. With shares hovering at around $270 per share and recent price target hikes from select Wall Street analysts, I do think that a Santa Claus rally might just help Apple shares power the $300 per-share mark before year’s end.

Apple (AAPL) is up 26% in the last three months and trades near all-time highs at around $270 per share.
Apple will pay Google $1B per year to use its AI model for an improved Siri launching in spring 2026.
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Now, such a move suggests an 11% gain in just under two months, which, I think, has a low probability of happening, especially since we’ll need to wait until next year to get a glimpse of that holiday quarter. As such, I wouldn’t get my hopes up as the year comes to a close and some bulls, like Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, look for the S&P 500 to make a move that sends it to 7,500 before 2025 reaches the finish line.

Such a target would suggest just over 10% upside from current levels. And while I do respect Lee’s track record, I think a 10% gain by 2025’s end is far too bullish. Perhaps by the end of next year, it would be a more realistic assumption. For now, we’ll have to wait and see. Without such a bullish melt-up, I think it’s very difficult to envision Apple stock at or above the $300 level, given much of the timely, needle-moving catalysts lie in the first half of next year.

Could some traders rush into the name before the catalysts have a chance to kick off? Perhaps, but I’d be more inclined to wait and see than double down right here at fresh all-time highs, even though the technical picture for Apple stock does look pretty good as it seeks to make up for lost time after that sluggish first half of 2025.

Either way, the current Street-high price target has been bumped up to $345 per share, a target held by Ben Reitzes of Melius Research, a man who sounds even more bullish on Apple stock than Wedbush’s Dan Ives.

Reitzes likes the services growth profile, investments in AI, as well as iPhone 17 demand, which may very well land a grand slam home run in the holiday season. I do find it quite interesting that Apple would have such a strong guide for its upcoming holiday quarter. Whether that’s enough to buy the stock here for a breakout remains the big question.

In any case, we received some pretty encouraging data points after Apple’s latest quarter, and since the stock hasn’t really budged since, I’m of the opinion that the name is a great buy, not for a year-end bounce, but perhaps a year-ahead rally. In my view, the big wild card is how well Google’s AI model will run on AI. After a rather muted reception to Apple Intelligence in the past, expectations for the new-and-improved Siri might be too low going into spring 2026.

With reports suggesting Apple will pay Google $1 billion per year to use its AI, questions linger as to how much Apple will actually earn as Siri looks to pull to the front of the pack in the AI race. My guess is that $1 billion a year will prove an absolute steal compared to how much Apple could make in device sales in the new year. In fact, I think the Google deal sets the stage for that AI-driven iPhone super-cycle that some thought would be in the cards two years ago.