Ethereum Data Backs the ETH Price Recovery

Ethereum (ETH) price is up 18% since plunging below the $1,800 mark on Feb. 6, reclaiming the $2,000 support level. Surging price volatility and a low MVRV Z-score value are also signaling a local bottom forming.

Key takeaways:

• Ethereum realized volatility on Binance has risen to its highest level since March 2025, hinting at a potential recovery.

• Ether’s MVRV Z-Score has dropped into the accumulation zone, suggesting that ETH has bottomed. 

• Ether’s multiyear trend line around $1,800-$1,900 holds as support. 

Ethereum’s volatility hits 12-month highs

Ethereum’s volatility has seen a sudden spike, suggesting that the market is entering a period of intense activity and strong repricing, according to data from CryptoQuant.

Volatility is a metric used to determine how much and how quickly Ether’s price fluctuates over a given period. 

Related: ETH options turn bearish as traders prepare for extended Ether price downside

The chart below shows that the realized volatility (30-day) indicator on Binance rose sharply to 0.97 on Thursday from 0.37 in mid-January. 

A spike in realized volatility to such high levels indicates that the “market has emerged from a period of relative calm and entered a highly volatile environment,” CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain said in a Quicktake analysis, adding:

“Past experience has shown that such readings have often preceded a significant upward move in Ethereum’s price.”

The last time the volatility was this high was between late March and early April 2025 as ETH price formed a bottom range between $1,500 and $1,700.

After that, the ETH/USD pair rallied 77% to $2,700 in less than 30 days. A similar spike in Q4/2024 preceded a 74% rally in Ether’s price.

If history repeats itself, this spike in volatility could mark the end of the downtrend, setting up ETH for a multimonth rally once volatility normalizes and conviction builds.

MVRV Z-Score suggests Ether bottomed below $1,800

Ether’s MVRV Z-Score, one of the most popular onchain metrics used to identify market tops and bottoms, has dropped into the historical accumulation zone (the green line in the chart below), strengthening the argument that ETH may have found its bottom.

The last time Ether’s MVRV Z-Score dipped to the current level around -0.31 was in April 2025, after a 66% price drawdown. This coincided with a price bottom at $1,400 and preceded a multi-month rally, with ETH price rising 258% to its $4,950 all-time high. 

This indicates that, from an onchain perspective, Ether is oversold and may continue the ongoing recovery, potentially rising toward liquidity clusters between $2,200 and $2,500 in the short term.

Ether’s 2020 fractal projects an “explosive climb” for ETH price

Ether’s current technical structure closely mirrors the setup that sparked its 2020-2021 price rally. 

The monthly chart below suggests that the price is currently holding a multi-year trend line, much like the one that supported the price between December 2018 and April 2020. 

“Every time price holds above this ascending support trend line, it launches into a parabolic rally,” as seen in 2020, analyst Trader Tardigrade said in an X post on Thursday, adding:

”Now $ETH is testing the trendline again. If it holds here, history says we’re gearing up for another explosive climb.”

This trend line lies within the $1,900 and $1,800 support zone, where investors recently acquired 2.9 million ETH, Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap shows.

As Cointelegraph reported, ETH could continue its recovery to retest the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2,540 if bulls manage to push the price above $2,100.