Key takeaways:
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XRP holds above a critical level in September, raising hopes about a potential recovery in October.
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Breaking above the $2.81 resistance is key, with technicals projecting about a 30% rally to $3.62.
XRP (XRP) traded at the monthly open around $2.77 after dropping 14% over the last two weeks. Holding this level sparks hopes that a recovery could be in the cards going into October.
XRP price must hold above $2.75
XRP faces a critical test near the Sept. 1 open around $2.75, according to analysts.
This level coincides with the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle, as shown on the daily chart below. Holding above the trendline would increase the chances of a break above the descending trendline of the chart $2.86 (the 100-day simple moving average (SMA)). This move can result in reaching the bullish target of the triangle at $3.62
The Glassnode distribution heatmap shows that a large cluster of demand sits between $2.75, where nearly 1.58 billion XRP were acquired, reinforcing the importance of this level.
However, there is a wall of supply sitting around $2.81 (embraced by the 100-day SMA), which could impede any recovery efforts in the short term.
Related: Is XRP price going to crash after falling below $3 again?
Conversely, a drop below $2.75 could trigger another sell-off toward $2.00, the bearish target of the symmetrical triangle.
“$XRP is still in a solid bullish consolidation,” said analyst Hardy in an X post on Sunday, adding that as long as the price holds above the $2.72-$2.75 range, the “upside potential remains in play.”
Fellow analyst XForceGlobal pointed out that the more XRP consolidated around $2.75, the stronger the breakout, adding that $20-30 targets remain in play.
As Cointelegraph reported, XRP could possibly drop to $2.50 before a price rebound, based on Fibonacci extension analysis.
October is usually a bad month for XRP
Unfortunately for the bulls, XRP tends to struggle in October. Since 2013, the price has closed in the red for seven of the past twelve months, with average returns slipping about −4.58%.
However, November is the best month, making the period between October and December the best quarter for XRP price rallies. It is the only three-month period with average gains of 51%, according to data from Cryptorank.
Looking at the recent years, XRP rallied about 240% in Q4/2024 and 20% in Q4/2023. The rally was more exponential in 2017 with gains of 1,064% between Oct. 1 and Dec. 1.
Even in bear cycles, such as 2018’s -39.1% and 2022’s -29.2% losses were outliers. But in any case, the last quarter of the year consistently delivers significant moves.
If history is anything to go by, XRP’s price action could completely reverse in Q4/2025, and that recovery could begin by mid-October.
XRP ETFs can spark “Uptober”
October’s ETF spotlight could add tailwinds to XRP’s rally, with SEC deadlines looming mid-month.
Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF decision has been pushed to Nov. 14, while REX/Osprey’s XRPR debuted on Sept. 18 with nearly $38 million in first-day volume.
Grayscale’s decision is expected on Oct. 18, with key deadlines for other applications falling between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25.
Streamlined SEC standards and post-Ripple lawsuit clarity have pushed approval odds to 100% by Dec. 31, unlocking a possible $4–$8 billion in first-year inflows, according to analysts.
However, market participants have also cautioned that this likely event may already be partially priced in, raising the risk of approvals turning into a “sell the news” event.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
