Monero held support near $300 after the network’s largest block reorganization on record, a 43-minute event that shook miner trust but did not produce confirmed double-spends.
Summary
- Monero suffered an 18-block reorganization on Sept. 14 after a brief hashrate concentration by the Qubic pool.
- XMR rose to roughly $308 before settling near $300, with spot volume up ~25% and derivatives activity rising sharply.
- Technicals show short-term strength above moving averages, but overbought indicators and rising derivatives volumes raise the chance of a volatile pullback.
As of this writing, Monero is up 5.4% over the last day, trading at $300.87. The privacy-focused cryptocurrency has continued to rise from its summer lows, up 10% in the last week and 27% in the last 30 days.
Spot volume rose 25% to $87.5 million in 24 hours, while derivatives volumes jumped 68% to $61.5 million, as per Coinglass data. Open interest also grew 5.6% to $44.5 million, indicating growing speculation but also a potential buildup of volatility.
Despite the rally, network concerns are resurfacing after Monero’s (XMR) deepest-ever block reorganization.
Monero shaken by record reorganization
On Sept. 14, Monero experienced its largest blockchain reorganization on record, affecting 18 consecutive blocks between heights 3,499,659 and 3,499,676. About 118 previously confirmed transactions were invalidated during the roughly 43-minute event, which also rewrote 36 minutes of chain history.
A blockchain reorganization occurs when two competing versions of the chain emerge, often due to simultaneous block production by miners. To resolve the conflict, the network discards the shorter chain and adopts the longest valid chain.
In this instance, the Qubic mining pool, which is a part of the IOTA ecosystem, outpaced other pools and caused the rollback by momentarily controlling over 51% of Monero’s hashrate.
No confirmed double-spend was detected, but the event reignited concerns about network security. Qubic had already tested Monero’s resilience with a smaller six-block reorg in August, sparking debate about the effectiveness of RandomX, the proof-of-work algorithm designed to keep mining decentralized.
Researchers confirmed the scale of the reorg, warning that users may now need to wait for 20 or more confirmations before considering transactions final. Despite the reorg, Monero’s price climbed from $287 to over $308 in the hours following the incident, showing resilience similar to previous periods of pressure.
Monero price technical analysis
With both the 50-day and 200-day averages displaying bullish signals, Monero is maintaining its position above key moving averages. At 65, the relative strength index indicates that momentum is still strong but is moving in the direction of overbought levels.
The signals from other oscillators are conflicting. The stochastic indicators suggest a potential cooling, while the moving average convergence divergence is in buy territory. The $300 level is serving as a crucial support for the time being.
Any decline below $290 could indicate a bearish retracement, but a sustained move above $310 could pave the way for additional gains.
