High net worth individuals (HNWIs) in the UK are showing renewed optimism in the economy, but concerns around tax reform and persistent inflation continue to cast a long shadow, according to the latest Saltus Wealth Index.
The Saltus Wealth Index Report provides an in-depth study into the views of HNWIs in the UK. The Index itself acts as a barometer of the confidence and concerns this group has about the UK economy and their own financial circumstances.
It ranges between 0 and 100, with higher values indicating greater confidence and fewer concerns.
In its eighth edition, the Index has risen to 64.7, up from 58.2 earlier this year when sentiment hit a record low. The rebound reflects stronger market performance following the “Trump tariff trough” and modest improvements in GDP, wages and interest rates.
But despite the uptick, confidence levels remain well below the highs recorded before Labour’s first Budget in 2024. At that time 84% of HNWIs were bullish about the UK’s prospects.
In the latest survey, 66% expressed confidence in the economy, while one in four cited the risk of recession as their biggest concern. Confidence among older HNWIs lags further behind, with just 15% of over-55s holding a positive outlook.
Tax jitters ahead of the Autumn Budget
The report, produced in partnership with Dr Michael Peacey of the University of Bristol, highlights growing unease over potential tax reform.
Nearly four in five HNWIs (78%) expect tax rises over the next 12 months, with Capital Gains Tax, Income Tax, Employers’ National Insurance and pension contribution relief seen as the most likely targets.
Almost half (46%) of respondents named tax as the biggest single risk to their wealth, second only to inflation (58%). Anticipating change, a third (33%) are already making adjustments such as pension planning, setting up trusts or reviewing retirement savings.
Inheritance tax also remains a flashpoint. While 36% expect rates to rise and 47% believe thresholds will remain frozen, a sizeable minority argue for sweeping reform, with 30% saying IHT should be abolished altogether.
Advice gap shapes confidence
The report underlines the role of professional financial advice in shaping sentiment. Economic confidence is highest (84%) among those who have consulted an adviser in the last three months, compared with just 33% among those who have never sought advice.
Saltus partner Mike Stimpson said: “Confidence in the UK economy is showing a degree of recovery amongst HNWIs, up from the lows we saw in January, but this is tempered by concerns over future tax changes and what the Labour Government will do next. This cohort are the wealth creators, investors and employers who drive economic growth. If their confidence is undermined by continual uncertainty, that has consequences for everyone.”
Dr Michael Peacey added that while the recovery in the Index reflects improved markets and trade prospects, volatility remains: “There are plenty of warning signals. Persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and the prospect of further tax rises in the November 2025 Budget continue to weigh on sentiment.”
