Operational restrictions are communicated through Notices to Airmen, or NOTAMs—directives issued by aviation authorities that inform airlines which routes remain open and which must be avoided. These advisories can appear with very little advance warning.
“In situations like this, airspace closures can be announced through NOTAMs with only hours of notice,” says Iakina. “Airlines and passengers often find out at roughly the same time.”
Even when routes reopen, aircraft may no longer follow the same paths they originally did. Airlines may be required to detour around restricted airspace, extend flight paths, or reroute aircraft through different hubs. “A sudden full closure of major airspace is relatively rare,” says Nada. “More commonly, authorities restrict certain corridors and airlines reroute flights around them.”
For passengers, the impact is often felt through longer travel times, delayed departures, or disrupted connections rather than outright cancellations.
What recent flight history can tell you
Travelers trying to gauge the likelihood of disruption can often learn more from recent flight activity than from the schedule alone.
Airlines rarely cancel flights individually. When restrictions tighten, they typically suspend routes in clusters, often covering the next 48 to 72 hours. Looking at whether the same flight number has operated consistently in the days leading up to departure can offer a useful signal.
If the flight has operated normally for several days in a row, the likelihood of immediate cancellation is lower. If it has failed to operate repeatedly, disruption becomes more likely.
Flight tracking platforms such as FlightRadar24 can help travelers see that history clearly. While it cannot guarantee that a flight will run, it offers a clearer picture of how the route has been performing in real time.
When to contact airlines and hotels
Experts recommend beginning to monitor developments roughly seven to 10 days before departure. If uncertainty remains closer to the travel date, contacting airlines or travel providers three to five days before departure can help clarify options. “Within 48 hours of departure, travelers should verify flight status and monitor operational updates,” says Nada.
Accommodation providers are another detail travelers sometimes overlook. Rather than cancelling immediately, it can be more useful to understand what flexibility exists before cancellation deadlines pass. “Confirm hotel flexibility upfront and ensure you can extend your stay if needed,” says Iakina. “That’s a practical step many travelers forget until the situation changes.” Knowing whether a stay can be extended or rescheduled can prevent complications if return travel is delayed.
What happens if your airline cancels
Rebooking usually becomes relevant once disruption is confirmed rather than anticipated. If an airline cancels a flight or a connection becomes impossible, passengers are typically entitled to rebook or request refunds, depending on the airline’s policies. “If your airline cancels your flight or your connection can’t happen anymore, that’s when you should rebook,” says Iakina.
Travelers should also check whether their itinerary sits on a single booking reference. “Single-ticket connections protect you if one flight is cancelled and you miss the next segment,” Iakina explains. “If flights are booked separately, those protections usually don’t apply.”
Another practical point is to avoid cancelling flights independently before the airline does. “Wait for the airline to cancel your flight,” she says. “That ensures you remain eligible for rebooking or refunds.”
What travel insurance really covers
When disruption stems from events outside of an airline’s control—including conflict or airspace closures—airlines usually apply “force majeure” policies. These policies generally allow passengers to rebook flights without charge. However, airlines usually aren’t required to provide full refunds or cover additional travel expenses beyond the flight itself. (That doesn’t mean they won’t offer to in extenuating circumstances.)
