“The information that forms the basis of travel advisories comes from the ‘country team’—the professionals in a country’s embassy and consulates,” explains K. Campbell, principal of Blue Glacier Security & Intelligence LLC, a company that conducts security consulting, including risk assessments and geopolitical forecasting. “They’re seeing and hearing threat information that could adversely affect citizens.”
The State Department evaluates destinations across nine risk indicators, including crime, terrorism, civil unrest, health risks, natural disasters, kidnapping, and wrongful detention. Advisories are reviewed regularly—at least every 12 months for lower-risk destinations and more frequently for higher-risk countries.
At the highest levels, advisories can also reflect operational limits. In conflict zones or following major disasters, embassy staffing may be reduced or suspended, limiting the US government’s ability to assist travelers.
While some embassy staff—such as ambassadors and special envoys—are political appointees selected by the current presidential administration, Campbell says he can’t think of an example when a State Department advisory was used as a political tool. However, it is possible, he notes.
“At their most extreme, travel advisories can cause diplomatic ruffles, which is precisely why they should be taken seriously,” Campbell says. “For example, a ‘do not travel’ recommendation, an evacuation recommendation, or even a ‘reconsider travel’ advisory can create diplomatic headaches by upsetting the host country. Embassies, the US State Department, and Ministries of Foreign Affairs in other countries are loathe to ruffle the feathers of host nations unless the safety of their citizens are truly at stake.”
How should travelers interpret State Department advisories?
State Department travel advisories are intended as guidance, not restrictions—US citizens are generally free to travel where they choose. “Risk advisories should not be ignored, but they aren’t the end-all either,” Halloran says. “We’ve had many cases where a destination carries a Level 3 advisory, yet thousands of our clients have traveled without incident.”
When a country or region’s advisory level changes, experts say the key is understanding what specific risks are driving the designation. In February, for example, civil unrest in Mexico temporarily caused the US embassy to implement shelter-in-place orders in some regions, but tourism operations returned to normal later that week. That’s a much different type of risk—and recovery timeline–than the airspace closures in parts of the Middle East right now. Think about the United States: safety levels in one city can vary from neighborhood to neighborhood, let alone the entire country.
To start, Hermstedt recommends comparing the advisory’s geographic scope with your itinerary and seeing if there’s any obvious overlap. Even for popular travel destinations you think you know well, it’s worth spending some time on the country’s webpage—especially if you’re venturing off the beaten path. “People tend to underestimate risk in places they feel like they already know and understand,” he says, pointing to destinations like Mexico, a Level 2 country overall, but where risk varies widely by region, with some areas classified at Level 4.
No matter where you are traveling, Hermstedt recommends avoiding higher-risk areas, working with trusted partners, and building in logistical safeguards. “The difference between a risky trip and a safe one is often more about trip structure than the destination itself.”
