The Senior Citizen’s League’s (TSCL) model of estimating the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for retirees points to a 2.8 percent increase. TSCL’s 2027 COLA estimate is the same as the 2026 COLA.
“Americans are right to worry about our current COLA projection,” TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said. “The fact is that most senior households already get by on only about 58% as much income as their working-age counterparts, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a middle-class or working-class American who thinks the economy is doing well right now, especially as oil prices rise. Reforming Social Security needs to follow a two-pronged approach, strengthening revenues and benefits at the same time to ensure prosperity for all Americans, of all ages.”
Proposal: Cap Social Security Benefits $50,000 per Person
In a press statement, TSCL highlights that Social Security faces potential benefits cuts of around 24% in 2032 unless Congress acts. A new proposal by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget aims to address the problem by capping Social Security payments to beneficiaries at $50,000 per person, or $100,000 per couple. TSCL says the proposal — called the “Six Figure Limit” — would close about three fifths of the program’s projected shortfall over the next 75 years.
But TSCL believes seniors are likely to resist this proposal stating it effectively amounts to a benefits cut for some Americans. TSCL’s research finds that 95% of seniors oppose benefits cuts for current retirees, while 66% oppose cuts for future retirees.
SEE ALSO: Guide to Federal Retiree COLAs: What Are They and How Are They Calculated?
TSCL’s research also provides these key insights:
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- $100,000 doesn’t go as far as it used to. One issue with the Six Figure Limit plan is that it does not guarantee that its new cap on Social Security benefits would increase over time as the economy grows or might freeze the cap for up to 30 years before allowing it to grow. In major urban areas, such as New York, the District of Columbia, Los Angeles, and Boston, average rent already often exceeds $2,000 per month for a 1-bedroom apartment.
- Seniors already prefer a better means of extending Social Security’s finances. Instead of limiting the cap on benefits, most seniors would have the government eliminate the cap on Social Security contributions. Americans currently do not pay taxes into Social Security on income above $184,500. About 77 percent of seniors support eliminating the limit, according to our research, with majorities among both Democrats, Republicans, and Independents alike. According to the Social Security Administration’s Office of the Chief Actuary, this would extend Social Security’s insolvency through at least 2090 without any benefit cuts. That’s even longer than what the Six Figure Limit proposal would accomplish.
“Rather than taking away benefits from people who have paid into the system their entire working lives, we should focus on strengthening America’s pension system,” Benton said. “Seniors tell us over and over that their benefits don’t go as far as they used to, and many younger people worry if the program will have atrophied to a shadow of its former self by the time they reach retirement age, even as taxes on their wages cover today’s benefits.”
Each month, TSCL issues a new prediction of the next COLA for Social Security using its statistical model. “Our model incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate to make its predictions,” TSCL says. The model’s predictions update throughout the year, adjusting in response to economic conditions.
The official 2027 COLA will be released by the Social Security Administration (SSA) in mid-October 2026. The SSA will calculate the percent change between average prices in the third quarter of the current year (ending on Sept. 30) with the third quarter of the previous year.
