Travelers in Terminal 1 at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York, March 1, 2026.
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As airfare continues to climb amid the Iran war, prospective travelers may be wondering: Should I buy my plane ticket now or wait to see if things improve?
Travel experts say the best bet is generally to buy sooner rather than later.
“Regardless of whether you’re looking to travel in two weeks, two months or even looking ahead to fall travel, waiting to buy airfare … in hopes the conflict will end soon is honestly riskier than some of the fashion choices we made as teens: Our future self is not going to be happy about it,” said Katy Nastro, a travel expert at Going, a travel deal website.
In short: “If it fits in your budget now, don’t put it off,” Nastro said.
Airfare has risen, especially for international routes
A technician prepares to refuel a Delta Airlines aircraft at the Austin-Bergrstrom International Airport on April 10, 2026 in Austin, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Airline ticket prices generally creep upward as the high-demand summer travel season approaches.
But prices have climbed more sharply than usual this year amid an oil supply shock triggered by the ongoing Middle East conflict, which started Feb. 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran.
The average round-trip domestic flight cost $361 as of April 20, according to weekly data from Kayak, a travel search engine. That price is up about 8% from $335 on Feb. 23, before the Iran war started. It’s also up 19% from $304 a year ago, in late April 2025.
International fares have climbed more in recent months: The average round-trip flight hit $1,097 on April 20, a 42% increase from $774 on Feb. 23 and a 14% rise from a year earlier, according to Kayak.
The impact of jet fuel and the Iran war
A jet-fuel truck on the tarmac at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, US, on Wednesday, April 22, 2026.
Eva Marie Uzcategui | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Airlines are raising summer prices largely because of the cost of jet fuel, according to Hayley Berg, lead economist at Hopper, a travel booking app.
Jet fuel is one of airlines’ largest operating costs, typically accounting for 20% to 30% of their total expenses — making jet fuel a “significant driver” of airfare, Berg wrote in an e-mail.
Iran and the U.S. have blockaded the Strait of Hormuz — a maritime shipping route through which passes roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply — in competing attempts to inflict economic pain on the other, pushing up global oil prices.
The price of U.S. jet fuel, which is refined from crude oil, has increased about 82% since the Iran war began, to $4.56 per gallon as of Wednesday from $2.50 on Feb. 27, according to an Argus Media jet fuel price index.
Airlines must either absorb those extra costs or pass them on via pricing to recoup “materially higher” per-flight costs, Berg wrote.
In addition to raising ticket prices, airlines have taken measures such as raising baggage fees, adding fuel surcharges and cutting flight schedules to manage the fallout.
The degree of impact for consumers varies by route, Berg wrote.
For example, the price effect can be more limited on shorter flights since fuel represents a smaller share of total operating costs, she wrote. But fuel becomes the “dominant cost driver” on longer flights, so fuel oil price moves have a more direct and pronounced impact on those travelers, she wrote.
Berg said she estimates higher fuel costs have already pushed summer airfare up by about 10% relative to Hopper’s expectations. Fares to Europe, the top summer travel destination for Americans, have risen about 9%, she wrote.
“We don’t know how fuel prices will trend for this summer, as the outcome of the current conflict is unknown,” Berg wrote. “Travelers looking to book a domestic or international flight for summer should start monitoring prices now. If they see a good deal, we recommend they go ahead and purchase!”
Even if the war were to wind down in the near future, it would still likely take months for the situation to normalize, experts said.
For example, it would take time to rebuild oil infrastructure in the Middle East and to work through delays to oil production, Nastro said.
“Don’t wait [to buy], because it’s a risk you just don’t want to take at this point,” she said. “Thinking that the fare will drop drastically, you’re running the risk of it just not dropping at all.”
That logic holds for summer travel as well as flights in September and October, she said.
The ‘Goldilocks’ window to buy plane tickets
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War aside, airfare can be volatile, experts said. And airline tickets tend to get more expensive in the weeks and months before departure.
Travelers can generally score the best deals by buying months in advance, and not waiting until the last minute, they said.
Nastro refers to this as the “Goldilocks” window.
Domestic fliers generally get the best prices when buying about three to seven months ahead of their trip, while international travelers typically do so four to 10 months beforehand, Nastro said.
Berg offered a similar timeline, depending on the destination. She recommended:
- Domestic flights: Start to monitor prices three to four months ahead of a trip and book one to two months beforehand;
- Trips to Europe: Begin monitoring prices seven to eight months ahead of departure and book three to six months in advance;
- Trips to Asia, Australia and Africa: Monitor prices seven to eight months ahead and book five to seven months in advance for longer-haul international trips.
Travelers who haven’t yet booked their trips can also consider the fall shoulder season instead of flying over the summer to save money, and/or postpone until there’s perhaps more clarity around the Iran war, Berg said.
“Flying in September or October, compared to peak summer months, can offer significant savings on trips, particularly to international destinations like Europe,” she said.
