Senator Lummis says a Clarity Act Senate floor vote could come before August, with passage odds at 75%.
Summary
- Galaxy Research raised its 2026 Clarity Act passage probability to 75% following the Senate Banking Committee’s 15-9 bipartisan vote on May 14.
- Senator Lummis said she would love a June floor vote but called that timeline “probably pretty optimistic,” with August now the realistic target.
- Seven Democratic votes are needed to clear the 60-vote filibuster threshold, with an elected officials ethics provision as the key sticking point.
A Senate floor vote on the Clarity Act could come within 30 days, with Galaxy Research raising its 2026 passage probability to 75% following last week’s 15-9 bipartisan Senate Banking Committee vote.
Senator Cynthia Lummis struck a measured tone. “Nobody is popping the champagne quite yet. There’s still a lot of work to do,” she said. On timing she was direct: “I would love to have this bill on the floor in June. That’s probably pretty optimistic.”
What still has to happen before a Senate floor vote
The bill must first be merged with a Senate Agriculture Committee version that differs on CFTC jurisdiction provisions. After reconciliation, the combined text needs 60 Senate floor votes to clear a filibuster.
Crypto.news has tracked the compressed legislative calendar throughout 2026, with the Memorial Day recess now passed as an earlier hard deadline. Galaxy Research head of research Alex Thorn estimates a signing during the week of August 3 in the optimistic scenario.
What a Clarity Act signing would mean for crypto markets
Galaxy Research’s 75% probability is the highest institutional estimate on record for the bill. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt said Clarity Act passage would deliver roughly 90% of what the crypto industry needs from Congress.
Analysts at Standard Chartered have estimated passage could unlock $4 to $8 billion in additional XRP ETF inflows alone. The XRP price page tracks market reaction against the legislative backdrop in real time.
Why the ethics provision is the last major obstacle
Two Senate Democrats voted yes in the Banking Committee, but reaching 60 floor votes requires seven more Democratic crossovers. The primary sticking point is a conflict-of-interest provision covering elected officials participating in crypto markets.
Cody Carbone of the Digital Chamber told reporters a deal on the ethics provision would likely be completed before the bill goes to the floor. “I imagine the deal will be completed before this goes to the floor, because they’ll want to only bring it to the floor if they feel confident they’ve got 60,” he said.
