It’s official: Most of President Trump’s tariffs are illegal. The Supreme Court struck down the president’s signature economic orders on Friday in a 6-3 ruling, spelling the end of a controversial policy that added an estimated $1,000 tax increase for each American household, raised prices on consumer goods, and alienated key U.S. allies.
Not all of Trump’s tariffs need to end because of this ruling. The court acknowledged that presidents have the power to “unilaterally impose tariffs of unlimited amount, duration, and scope.” Instead, the court found that tariffs enacted based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were done so improperly, as the administration “points to no statute” from Congress that says the IEEPA could be used for tariffs. That means tariffs against steel and aluminum could continue, since those were enacted from other laws, but both the “reciprocal” tariffs placed against other countries, and the flat 25% tariff placed on goods from countries like Canada, China, and Mexico, cannot currently stand.
That raises a lot of questions. Will the Trump administration seek to impose these tariffs through other means, avoiding the IEEPA altogether? Will companies that have paid tariffs already get their money back? And, perhaps most pressing to the average consumer, will prices for common goods, like tech, finally come down?
How will the Supreme Court’s ruling affect tech prices?
There’s no clear answer to this one, since there’s really no precedent here. Trump is the first president to use the IEEPA as a reasoning to enact tariffs, and, as such, this is an enormous flip-flop that doesn’t have a previous framework to look back to.
The reason tariffs are inflationary, or raise prices on goods, is because they make it more expensive for U.S. companies to import foreign goods. People can confuse this point: Tariffs place a tax on the importer of a good, not necessarily the manufacturer of that good. When a company exports its products to the U.S. with a tariff in place, it does not directly pay the tariff: The company that imports those products pays. As a result, importers raise their prices to compensate. Look at Nintendo: The company raised its original MSRPs for Switch 2 accessories like the Pro Controller and Joy-Con 2, as well as the original Switch, in the wake of tariffs. As these products cost more to import to the U.S., prices go up to give the company a cushion. It could’ve been worse, too, since Nintendo didn’t raise the price of the Switch 2 or its games—though there’s no telling whether those MSRPs were set with tariffs in mind, too.
As such, you might expect that if these tariffs disappear, these prices will come down. If Nintendo felt the need to raise Pro Controller prices by $15 in response to tariffs, it might reverse course now that Trump’s tax is no longer placing a burden on U.S. importers. While anything’s possible, I don’t think it’s very likely. For many goods, prices can rise quickly, especially with factors like tariffs, but can take a long time to fall—if at all. Some economists think that ending tariffs would cause prices to rise slower, but not stop: a disinflationary effect, rather than deflationary.
We the consumer may be to blame. If companies raise prices in response to tariffs, and consumers continue to buy those products regardless, it shows that the market supports those prices. The consumer doesn’t necessarily see the impact of the tariff going away, so why lower prices? It’s only in that company’s best interest anyway, since they’ll sell goods at higher prices without paying the tariff tax. If the company was struggling to sell inflated goods, perhaps prices will come down: If Nintendo is selling far fewer Switch units following its tariff increases, maybe it’ll cut the price back down to encourage sales. But it’s truly difficult to say without being on the inside.
Not all price increases are due to tariffs
Then, of course, there are the forces at play that push prices north besides tariffs. Computer components come to mind, particularly RAM. These components are becoming more expensive—and harder to find—not necessarily because of tariffs, but because AI companies are scooping them up for data processing. All of a sudden, everything that runs on these components is at risk of rising in price, since one section of the market has such a high demand. It doesn’t matter if RAM is cheaper to import next month after tariffs are gone, if there’s no RAM left to buy.
What do you think so far?
That means your gaming consoles, laptops, smart displays, cars—anything that runs on RAM, GPUs, and CPUs—could rise in price, unless more components can be made to meet demand. SCOTUS might’ve taken the burden of tariffs away from these imports, but it might not bring prices down, or, worse yet, do anything to stop them skyrocketing. Micron, the only American-based producer of RAM, didn’t think memory shortages would end this year, even ahead of the tariff news. The company is investing in more facilities to produce components, but that takes time, which means price increases could continue for the foreseeable future.
Don’t rely on tariffs ending to make big purchases
We can speculate all day about how the end of these tariffs will affect prices, but it’s just that: speculation. Companies will do what they’re going to do with the prices, and there’s nothing in the Supreme Court’s ruling to tell us whether our iPhones, Switches, or Echos are going to be cheaper later this year or not. Prices could plummet, come down slightly, stay the same, go up slowly, or go up quickly. My best guess is that the average consumer product previously affected by these tariffs will stay about the same price it is now, barring some other major change in the markets—but again, that’s just a guess.
As such, my advice is to make your purchase decisions based on other, more stable factors: Research the products you’re interested in to determine which has the best value; compare prices across different stores, both in-person and online; wait for traditional sales events if you’re looking for major deals.
The most concrete risk of price increases right now comes from that computer-component shortage. If you’ve been in the market for a new computer, or a device that relies heavily on these components (like gaming consoles), it might be a good time to buy. Prices can easily go up, but take a long time to come back down.
