Bitcoin (BTC) may recover from its ongoing slump and reach $150,000 by the year’s end, according to a recent Bernstein outlook.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin must hold the 200-week SMA and see new-investor flows turn positive.
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Sidelined capital must flow back into crypto, and the quantum threat needs to be addressed.
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More rate cuts from the Fed in 2026 will bring risk-on investors back to BTC.
Bitcoin must hold above this key trend line
One condition that has consistently defined Bitcoin’s transition from bear markets to new bull cycles is the price action around the 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, the blue wave).
Historically, this wave has acted as a magnet during deep drawdowns and a solid floor once selling pressure subsides.
In both 2015 and 2018, Bitcoin bottomed near the 200-week SMA before entering multiyear uptrends. The 2022 bear market saw BTC price briefly breaking below it, but the failure proved short-lived.
Bitcoin holding above the 200-week SMA will reduce the odds of a prolonged, 2022-style capitulation, while keeping the path open for a new bull phase.
Bitcoin’s new investor flows must return
Another prerequisite for a sustained bull run is a reversal in new investor flows.
As of February, wallets tracking first-time and short-term holders show roughly $2.7 billion in cumulative outflows, the highest since 2022.
In healthy bull markets, pullbacks attract fresh capital and accelerate participation. However, in the current market, the opposite is happening, according to IT Tech, a CryptoQuant-associated onchain analyst.
“Current readings resemble post-ATH transitions, in which marginal buyers exit and price is driven by internal rotation, not net inflows,” the analyst wrote in a Tuesday post.
Related: Bitcoin holders sell 245K BTC in tight macro conditions: Did the market bottom?
In prior cycles, including 2020, 2021 and 2022, sustained bullish reversals only emerged once new-investor flows flipped decisively back into positive territory.
The same must happen in 2026 to make a strong bull case for Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETF net flows turned positive on Monday, which could be a first sign that these investor flows are starting to come back.
Sidelined Tether must flow back into crypto
Tether’s (USDT) share of the total crypto market has risen in recent weeks to test a familiar 8.5%–9.0% resistance zone.
Rising USDT dominance means investors are parking money in stablecoins and avoiding risk. Falling dominance usually signals the opposite: capital rotating back into Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Since November 2022, clear pullbacks from this 8%–9% area have aligned with strong Bitcoin rebounds.
One rejection was followed by a 76% rally over 140 days, while another preceded 169% gains over 180 days. A similar setup occurred from 2020 to 2022, when the key ceiling sat near 4.5%–5.75%.
USDT dominance broke above that range in May 2022, and Bitcoin then fell by 45%, further reflecting the inverse correlation between the two.
As a result, Tether dominance must fall to start a new Bitcoin bull run.
Quantum fears must subside
Another headwind to overcome for Bitcoin is the potential quantum threat. These are theories that future quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s cryptography, putting BTC wallets at risk.
Some note that 25% of Bitcoin addresses are already at risk.
Several security-focused sources frame this as a threat that is still far off in the future.
For example, in November 2025, cryptographer and Blockstream CEO Adam Back said Bitcoin faces no meaningful quantum threat for “20 to 40 years,” adding the network can be “quantum ready” well before it becomes a real problem.
Bitcoin Optech also noted that near-term quantum risk would be concentrated in edge cases, such as reused addresses, rather than the entire network at once.
For Bitcoin to build a bull case in 2026, this threat must be addressed for buyers to regain confidence.
Doing just that, Coinbase and Strategy have launched initiatives, bringing in experts and mapping out a roadmap for Bitcoin security upgrades.
More rate cuts by the Fed
Bitcoin’s chances of re-entering a bull cycle in 2026 improve if the US Federal Reserve delivers at least two rate cuts next year, which is what CME futures pricing was currently implying as of February.
Lower rates generally reduce the appeal of yield-bearing assets like U.S. Treasurys, pushing investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. That shift tends to favor risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.
Donald Trump may push the new Fed chair for three rate cuts in 2026, according to Lee Ferridge, strategist at State Street Corp.
Three rate cuts this year may further increase Bitcoin’s appeal among risk traders.
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