BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin must break above $110,000 and climb toward $150,000–$200,000 for a true altcoin season to kick off.
In a recent interview with Fortune published on May 18, Hayes predicted this breakout could occur sometime in June or early Q3, driven by rising liquidity and increased trading volume. Hayes, who now manages his family office Maelstrom, emphasized that the next altcoin cycle won’t resemble the explosive gains seen in 2021.
He warned that many older tokens, what he called “dino coins,” are unlikely to recover due to high fully diluted valuations, limited float, and no real users or revenue. “You probably have a bunch of coins in your portfolio that went down 95%, and they’re not moving for a reason,” he said
When asked about Ethereum (ETH) versus Solana (SOL), Hayes said he expects ETH to outperform in the upcoming bull cycle. Despite Solana’s significant rally from $7 to over $170, he pointed to Ethereum’s deeper fundamentals, highest total value locked, most developers, and stronger security from its proof-of-stake design as key advantages.
Hayes also doubled down on his long-term price prediction for Bitcoin (BTC), saying it could reach $1 million by the end of Donald Trump’s potential second term in 2028. For this year, he sees Bitcoin rising to around $250,000.
On macro trends, Hayes criticized U.S. Treasury tactics for masking the country’s true borrowing needs. He believes the government is effectively spending more than reported by draining cash reserves and tapping underfunded programs. This, he said, creates excess dollar liquidity, an environment that favors Bitcoin and risk assets.
Hayes also revealed that gold makes up 20% of his investment portfolio, including physical holdings and mining stocks. He expects central banks to keep buying gold and believes the U.S. may eventually revalue its gold holdings to help weaken the dollar. In his view, gold could reach $10,000–$20,000 before this market cycle ends.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $103,000, roughly 6% below its all-time high of $108,786 set earlier this year.
