Bitcoin (BTC) is rebounding from a key on-chain support zone, putting the $78,000 level back in focus for bulls.
Key takeaways:
- BTC is eyeing a rebound to $78,200, the realized price of BTC held for three to six months.
- A sustained move above this cost basis could put Bitcoin on track for a push above $100,000 by year-end.
BTC’s short-term holders defend $71,400 cost basis
Bitcoin rebounded roughly 2.5% over the weekend to reach $74,000 on Sunday, with the recovery beginning near $72,500.
The local low came close to the realized price of BTC held for three to six months (orange), a cohort often used to gauge medium-term investor conviction.
BTC realized price by age vs. price. Source: Glassnode
realised
Glassnode data placed that group’s cost basis near $71,400, which analyst Marcus Corvinus described as Bitcoin’s “strongest near-term support.”
“This cohort is still holding profits, creating a strong incentive to defend the level,” Corvinus said in a Sunday post.
The analyst highlighted $78,200 as the next potential upside target for Bitcoin because the level aligns with the realized price of BTC held for three to six months (yellow). Bulls lost the level during the October 2025 market rout.
What happens after Bitcoin breaks above 3m-6m cost basis?
Bitcoin’s rebound above its three-to-six-month holder cost basis (yellow) has historically preceded stronger returns over longer time frames since 2017.
After similar breakouts, BTC has averaged a 2.3% gain over the following 30 days, a 21.9% gain after 90 days, and a 36.6% gain after 180 days.
BTC’s 3m-6m cohort realized price vs. price. Source: Glassnode
From Bitcoin’s current level near $74,000, that would imply upside targets of roughly $75,700 in one month, $90,200 in three months, and $101,100 in six months.
Related: Bitcoin doesn’t need a fresh narrative to reclaim $100K: Analyst
The signal has been more reliable over longer time frames. Bitcoin delivered positive returns in only 54.2% of cases after one month, but that hit rate rose to 66.7% after three months and 79.2% after six months.
Bitcoin bear flag can still spoil upside sentiment
Bitcoin’s rebound is also occurring near the lower boundary of a bear flag, keeping the technical outlook cautious.
The pattern has developed after Bitcoin’s sharp decline from its 2026 highs at around $98,000, with the price now stabilizing near the flag’s rising support trend line.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
A rebound from this area could push BTC toward the flag’s upper boundary near $90,000, a zone that also sits close to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the three-to-six-month holder cost basis.
That makes $90,000 the key upside target in the coming months if bulls can defend the current support area.
Conversely, a daily close below the lower trend line would risk confirming a breakdown, opening the door to a deeper decline toward the $50,000–$60,000 range, depending on the exact breakdown point.
In that scenario, the recent bounce from holder cost-basis support would look more like a relief move inside a broader downtrend than the start of a sustained recovery.
