Bitcoin (BTC) struggled near $60,000 around Monday’s Wall Street open as bulls increasingly risked a support/resistance flip.
Key points:
- Bitcoin bulls face an uphill struggle to flip $60,000 back to support, even as US stocks see fresh upside.
- Iran peace hopes fuel a more positive risk-asset mood, but analysis says that Bitcoin buyers “lack conviction.”
- Market participants are “defensive” around current price action.
US-Iran meeting announcement sends stocks higher
Data from TradingView showed an ongoing battle to regain control of $60,000, with BTC price strength again failing to keep pace with US stocks.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index both started the week in the green amid renewed optimism of rescuing the US-Iran peace deal.
In a post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump wrote that Iran had “requested a meeting,” which would take place in Doha, United Arab Emirates, on Tuesday.
S&P 500 four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Commenting on the latest events, trading company QCP Capital nonetheless cautioned over the potential for oil prices to rebound — a key potential headwind for crypto.
“While both countries appear to have agreed to stand down for now, the situation remains uncertain. That said, oil prices have remained largely stable in the low $70s, suggesting cautious optimism that tensions may ease,” it wrote in its latest Market Color analysis.
“However, this relatively muted market reaction also leaves significant upside risk for oil prices should supply recovery prove slower than expected.”
CFDs on WTI crude oil four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
On Friday, WTI crude fell below $68 per barrel for the first time since early March, but was back above the $70 mark at the time of writing.
“U.S. markets are also set to be closed on Friday, while the situation between the U.S. and Iran remains fluid, leaving volatility likely to stay elevated, partly driven by thinner liquidity conditions, similar to what we saw over the past weekend,” QCP added.
Bitcoin needs more “conviction” from buyers
Bitcoin market participants thus sat on the sidelines as “choppy” price moves defined low-time-frame market action.
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“Chopping around in this range at the previous June lows. The ~$60K region keeps capping price as we have some marginally higher low wicks below,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in his latest X analysis.
“The longer price spends moving around in this region, the bigger the following move upon a range break will be. Eyes on $58K & $61K.”
BTC/USDT one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
In its latest Market Pulse bulletin, onchain analytics platform Glassnode said that buyers “have so far lacked the conviction required to establish a sustained recovery, leaving price range-bound near local lows.”
“Beneath the surface, the market remains in a phase of structural adjustment as capital continues to contract and participants adopt a more defensive posture,” it reported.
“Spot markets are still experiencing persistent net selling despite an increase in trading activity, suggesting that available liquidity is being used primarily to distribute rather than accumulate Bitcoin at current prices.”
Bitcoin price momentum data (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
While noting “more balanced” onchain data, Glassnode added that a shift toward supply ownership by more speculative investors increased the potential for price volatility.
“Taken together, Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing around the $60K region, but with spot order flow, derivatives positioning, and institutional demand all remaining defensive, a sustained recovery is likely to require a meaningful return of buyer conviction,” it concluded.
