China is working behind the scenes to help end the Iran war, acting as a diplomatic middleman. The odds of Trump announcing an end to military operations by April 21 sit at
Market reaction
The ceasefire market for April 21 dropped from 33% a week ago, suggesting traders see little chance of a quick resolution. Visit China by May 31 is at
Why it matters
The Trump visit to China market reflects rising expectations of direct engagement. The May 31 odds climbed from 76% a week ago. Order book depth of $3,933 suggests the market can absorb substantial trades without major slippage.
China’s approach here is about maintaining energy security and diplomatic leverage without direct confrontation, focused on de-escalation rather than escalation.
What to watch
At 9¢, a YES share on the ceasefire ending by April 21 pays $1, an 11x return. For that bet to work, you’d need to believe a diplomatic breakthrough is coming within 5 days.
Key signals: statements from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or a Trump social media post about diplomatic progress. Any confirmation of a ceasefire extension or Trump’s May visit to China would move these markets.
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