Galaxy Digital has cut its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, warning that the US Senate is running out of time to move the crypto market structure bill before its August recess.
“We are reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50,” wrote Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, citing the lack of a unified Senate Banking-Agriculture text, no firm floor schedule and a narrowing legislative window before lawmakers leave Washington.
Thorn said the downgrade was about the bill’s timing, not substance and added that the congressional competition for floor time “intensified” after US President Donald Trump abruptly canceled the signing of the bipartisan housing bill and said he would not sign it until Congress passed the SAVE Act, to introduce a proof-of-citizenship elections bill.
The downgrade comes after Galaxy lowered its previous estimate of the bill from 75% to 60% on June 9. On May 22, the company had raised its CLARITY Act estimate to 75%.
The CLARITY Act is set for a House hearing on July 17. The bill aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the US, but it has been met with criticism. It cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, with most Democrats and the banking industry pushing back, arguing that it would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without facing the same requirements as traditional financial institutions.
Source: Alex Thorn
Congressional calendar squeezes crypto bill
The latest cut reflects mounting concern that even a bill with bipartisan support may not get enough floor time in a crowded Senate calendar.
Senate legislative schedule. Source: Senate.gov
The US Senate has entered a state work period from Monday until July 10. The Senate is also scheduled to begin its traditional August recess on Aug. 8 for five weeks before returning to Washington on Sept. 14, according to its legislative schedule.
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The runway to pass the bill is quickly declining, said Thorn, adding that the debate over the SAVE Act “injects another contentious, leadership-consuming fight into an already crowded queue.”
He added that the Senate is also working on two unfinished developments, including Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), to which the House failed to pass a reauthorization and the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for the fiscal year of 2027, which is considered “must-pass” legislation and is often the target of political debate.
At the beginning of June, over 200 crypto companies and organizations urged the US Senate to pass the CLARITY Act in a letter shared by crypto lobby group Stand With Crypto.
Later in June, a group of law enforcement organizations and a coalition of Catholic organizations reached out to White House officials with concerns that the CLARITY Act could create oversight gaps regarding illicit activity.
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