GENIUS Act shifts capital to regulated stablecoins like USDC

The GENIUS Act is driving capital from offshore stablecoins to regulated options like USDC. USDC depeg by December 31 sits at 2.9% YES.

The GENIUS Act’s compliance requirements have traders reassessing the stability of various stablecoins. The USDC depeg market shows no significant change in odds. The likelihood of USDC trading below $0.98 for a full day remains at 2.9% YES, with 251 days left for resolution.

The lack of volume in this market is worth noting. No trades occurred in the last 24 hours, and the market’s face value sits at $0 with minimal liquidity. Even a small order could move prices significantly, but current positioning suggests traders see little depeg risk.

The shift toward regulated stablecoins implies the market treats the GENIUS Act as a stabilizing force. With increased compliance and oversight, the probability of a USDC depeg looks lower still. A YES share priced at 3¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 33x return. For that bet to be attractive, traders would need to expect a regulatory misstep or significant market disruption, neither of which appears imminent.

Watch Circle’s monthly attestations and USDC reserve reports. Any deviation from full backing would be a red flag. Also track announcements from the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on stablecoin policy.

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