Gold () futures opened at $4,228.10 per troy ounce on Monday, down 0.4% from Friday’s closing price of $4,243. The price of gold declined in early trading.
The U.S. central bank’s policymaking committee will meet Tuesday and Wednesday to confirm or adjust interest rates. Analysts and investors largely expect a quarter-point rate reduction. CME FedWatch currently estimates with 89.6% probability that the Fed will lower the target rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% from the current range of 3.75% to 4%.
Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which can encourage spending, stimulate the economy, and raise prices. There is some concern about reducing rates while inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% long-term target. The last PCE inflation report showed prices rose 2.8% in September, up from 2.6% in June and July.
Lower interest rates also reduce cash yields, making gold look more attractive by comparison.
The opening price of gold futures on Monday was 0.4% lower than Friday’s close. Here’s a look at how the opening gold price has changed versus last week, month, and year:
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One week ago: +0.2%
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One month ago: +6.2%
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One year ago: +61.4%
On Nov. 14, gold’s one-year gain was 63.4%.
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Learn more: Gold vs. crypto: Which should investors own in debasement trade?
The price of gold can be quoted in multiple forms because the precious metal is traded in different ways. The two main gold prices investors should know about are spot prices and gold futures prices.
The spot price of gold is the current market price per ounce for physical gold as a raw material, sometimes called spot gold. Gold ETFs that are backed by physical gold assets generally track the gold spot price.
The spot price is lower than what you’d pay to buy gold coins, bullion, or jewelry, since your total price will include a markup called the gold premium that covers refining, marketing, dealer overhead, and profits. The spot price is more like a wholesale price, and the spot price plus the gold premium is the retail price.
Gold futures are contracts that mandate a gold transaction at a specific price on a future date. These contracts are exchange-traded and more liquid than physical gold. They settle on the contract expiration date or earlier, either financially or via delivery. A financial cash settlement involves paying the contract’s profit or loss in cash. Delivery means the seller sends physical gold to the buyer for the contracted price.
Supply and demand determine gold spot prices and gold futures prices. Factors that influence gold supply and demand include:
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Geopolitical events
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Central bank buying trends
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Inflation
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Interest rates
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Mining production
Whether you’re tracking the price of gold since last month or last year, the price-of-gold chart below shows the precious metal’s steady upward climb in value.
