Chinese mining figure Jiang Zhuoer has reportedly issued a bearish cycle forecast for Bitcoin, arguing that BTC may not find its final bear-market bottom until late 2026 in the $42,000 to $44,000 range.
TL;DR
- Jiang Zhuoer reportedly expects Bitcoin to bottom between $42,000 and $44,000.
- The forecast places the potential bottom between October and December 2026.
- His analysis reportedly uses Strategy’s mNAV and prior cycle timing as part of the framework.
A Miner’s Bear-Market Framework
Jiang Zhuoer is not making a short-term trading call in the usual sense. The forecast is a cycle view, reportedly based on a combination of market valuation, miner-cycle experience, and Strategy’s Bitcoin-linked market premium. He argues that BTC may still need several months before reaching a final bear-market low.
The projected $42,000 to $44,000 zone would imply further downside from current levels and would likely require continued weakness in risk assets, institutional flows, or leverage conditions. That makes the forecast uncomfortable for bulls, but useful as a downside scenario to track.
Why Strategy’s mNAV Enters The Debate
The candidate notes say Jiang’s framework includes Strategy’s mNAV dropping to 0.72, with the idea that the company’s Bitcoin-linked premium may bottom before spot BTC itself. Strategy has become such a large and visible Bitcoin proxy that some analysts now treat its equity premium as part of the broader cycle toolkit.
That does not mean Strategy determines Bitcoin’s price. It means the market’s willingness to pay a premium for leveraged corporate BTC exposure can offer a signal about speculative appetite. If that premium compresses sharply, it may show that investors are no longer eager to pay up for indirect Bitcoin exposure.
How Traders Can Use The Forecast
The most useful way to read Jiang’s call is as a scenario, not a certainty. Cycle forecasts often fail on timing, especially in markets driven by ETFs, macro liquidity, and corporate treasury demand. Still, downside targets from experienced industry figures can help traders define risk rather than assume every dip is a bottom.
If Bitcoin rejects recovery attempts and institutional flows stay weak, the $42,000 to $44,000 range may become a more widely discussed support zone. If BTC reclaims key resistance levels and demand returns, the forecast may instead serve as a reminder of the bearish case that failed to play out.
Market Context
The forecast also lands at a moment when several Bitcoin cycle models are being tested. ETF flows, corporate treasuries, and macro liquidity have changed the market since earlier cycles, so miner-led frameworks may not map perfectly onto current conditions.
Even so, miner perspectives remain useful because they often focus on cost, stress, and capitulation rather than short-term sentiment. If BTC moves toward the projected range, traders will likely revisit Jiang’s framework as part of the broader bottoming debate.
This coverage is based on information from Jiang Zhuoer on Weibo.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
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