Arkham’s Miguel Morel identified ThorChain as the Lazarus Group’s primary laundering channel. The market for another crypto hack over $100 million by December 31 is priced at
## Market reaction
The sub-market has 251 days remaining and face value volume sits at $0. At 100% YES, the market already prices in certainty that at least one more $100M+ hack will occur in 2026. This specific exploit, attributed to the Lazarus Group, confirms what the market had already anticipated. Further developments from this breach are unlikely to shift these odds, though they could affect related markets.
## Why it matters
The exploit worked by minting roughly $292 million in unbacked rsETH, which was then used as collateral to borrow approximately $236 million across multiple protocols, creating around $200 million in bad debt. The stolen funds were laundered through ThorChain, decentralized exchanges, and non-KYC services. ThorChain’s repeated appearance as a laundering channel for state-sponsored actors raises specific questions about cross-chain swap protocols that operate without identity verification.
KelpDAO responded by pausing rsETH contracts. Aave launched a “DeFi United” initiative. Both are reactive measures taken after the damage was done, and the market’s 100% pricing suggests traders see these responses as insufficient to prevent the next large-scale breach.
## What to watch
Monitor updates from ZachXBT and blockchain security firms like Chainalysis and TRM Labs. On-chain alerts from these sources have historically provided early signals of significant exploits and could affect pricing on related prediction markets. With 251 days left in the contract, any new hack above $100 million would further validate the market’s current consensus.
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