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More students are forgoing four-year college, new reports show

January 15, 2026
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More students are forgoing four-year college, new reports show


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For years, concerns over rising college costs and student loan debt have been driving some high schoolers away from a four-year degree in favor of shorter, less expensive alternatives.

Now it’s clear that students are putting more emphasis on career training and post-college employment, as more opt for a two-year degree or even shorter-term credentials. 

The overall rate of high school graduates choosing to enroll in community college and short-term credentialing programs is rising, according to a new report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

Enrollments in undergraduate certificate and associate degree programs both grew by about 2% in fall 2025, while enrollment in bachelor’s degree programs rose by less than 1%, the report found. Community colleges now enroll 752,000 students in undergraduate certificate programs — a 28% jump from just four years ago.

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Overall, undergraduate enrollment growth was fueled by more students choosing to attend community college, the report found. “Community colleges led this year with a 3% increase, driven by continued rising interest in those shorter job-aligned certificate programs,” said Matthew Holsapple, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s senior director of research.

For one thing, community college is significantly less expensive. At two-year public schools, tuition and fees averaged $4,150 for the 2025-2026 academic year, according to the College Board. Alternatively, at four-year public colleges, in-state tuition and fees averaged $11,950, and those costs at four-year private schools averaged $45,000.

To help cover that cost, most students borrow to pay for college, which has led to ballooning student loan balances. That debt load has become more difficult to manage: Around 9 million education loan holders are currently in a default status, according to a recent estimate from advocacy group Protect Borrowers.

Among those with student debt, 77% say it is a “huge burden,” and 63% say the education they received wasn’t worth the impact student loan debt has had on their overall well-being, according to a study from EdAssist by Bright Horizons.

“Community colleges are accessible, affordable, and accredited, offering traditional transfer programs and relevant workforce training without the burden of excessive debt,” DeRionne Pollard, president and CEO of the American Association of Community Colleges, said in an email.

‘Safety premium’ of a college degree is shrinking

The worst-case scenario is taking on student debt and graduating without a job, college experts say. 

At the same time, the job market for new grads is shakier than it’s been in years.

As a boom in artificial intelligence is quickly reshaping the workforce, eliminating some entry-level jobs for college grads entirely, employers are projecting just a 1.6% increase in hiring for the Class of 2026 when compared to the Class of 2025, according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers. Some experts say this is the start of an AI-driven, white-collar recession.

A 2025 analysis by Goldman Sachs found that the “safety premium” of a college degree is shrinking. Although college graduates are still less likely to be unemployed than their nondegree counterparts, the advantage is smaller than it’s been in decades, the firm found.

The benefits of a two-year degree, vocational program or other types of certifications “are amplified in an environment of economic uncertainty — making community colleges not only a smart option but a necessary one for many students,” Pollard said.

Meanwhile, a shortage of skilled tradespeople is boosting the number of job opportunities and pay in industries like nursing, manufacturing and construction, other research shows. Some in-demand trade jobs have average salaries well over $100,000 a year, according to the job site Indeed. 

Workforce Pell Grants create ‘new opportunities’

Starting in July, there’s even more incentive to pursue short-term training programs. 

Under President Donald Trump‘s “big beautiful bill,” which Congress passed last year, students enrolling in workforce training programs at community colleges may be eligible for Pell Grants, a type of aid awarded solely based on financial need. The grants are worth up to $7,395 for the 2025-26 academic year. Previously, these funds were only available to degree-seeking undergraduate students.

The program “will strengthen connections between higher education, states, and employers to enable more students to graduate from high-quality, short-term programs with the skills needed to succeed in our economy,” Undersecretary of Education Nicholas Kent said in a statement. The Department of Education has also ramped up efforts to caution students about “the benefits and risks” of borrowing for a college education.

For students concerned about the cost of schooling, the new workforce Pell Grant program is “super valuable funding,” said Jill Desjean, director of policy analysis at the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators.

“I can imagine that this would open new opportunities for students who just couldn’t afford these programs in the past and didn’t have other ways to pay for them,” Desjean said — particularly if “the field they want to go to doesn’t require a two- or four-year degree.”

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