The New Bulgarian Coalition, led by former President Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria party, is claiming victory in Bulgaria’s April 19 election. Exit polls show Progressive Bulgaria at 37-39% of the vote, and the Polymarket contract on Radev becoming the next Prime Minister sits at
Radev’s party outpaced rivals GERB-SDS and PP-DB but fell short of a majority, which means coalition talks are necessary. The Radev Prime Minister market has moved sharply, up from 76% a week ago. The need for coalition partners could complicate his path, given his refusal to work with GERB and DPS.
The market’s depth shows it takes $3,810 to move prices 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. In the last 24 hours, the largest price move was a 4-point drop at 3:21 PM, from 95% to 91%, as traders priced in some uncertainty around coalition dynamics. The market still reflects high confidence in Radev’s eventual appointment.
Radev’s pro-Russian stance, particularly his view on Crimea and EU relations, adds a geopolitical dimension to this domestic result. His anti-corruption platform has local appeal, but his foreign policy positions could strain EU and NATO ties as Bulgaria nears eurozone entry.
Traders should watch for coalition negotiations and any formal move to nominate Radev. A coalition agreement or formal nomination could push odds higher. A breakdown in talks could introduce volatility.
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