Pakistan called for diplomacy at the UN over the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and the market for US-Iran talks by May 31 now sits at
The Iran Diplomatic Meetings market spiked 5 points to 62% earlier today. The Iran Peace Deals market remains flat, with traders skeptical about a permanent resolution. The US-Iran Ceasefire market is priced at 100% YES, meaning traders treat a ceasefire end as a near-certainty regardless of diplomatic pushes.
The Iran Diplomatic Meetings market has $95,253 in actual USDC traded against a face value of $152,453. Just $8,995 can move the market 5 percentage points, making it vulnerable to large orders. The biggest move in the past 24 hours was that same 5-point jump.
Pakistan’s UN speech is more about optics than action. It signals a preference for dialogue, but without concrete steps, it’s unlikely to change much. At 60¢, a YES share for US-Iran talks by May 31 pays $1 if it resolves, a
Watch for announcements from Pakistan, Oman, or Qatar about hosting talks. Trump’s Truth Social posts or State Department scheduling hints could also move the odds.
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