Key takeaways:
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Solana maintains its market dominance in DEX volume and TVL despite SOL’s underperformance versus its peers.
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Easing sell pressure from volatile geopolitics and a resurgence in memecoin activity could catalyze a SOL price rally to $100.
Solana’s native token SOL (SOL) gained 10% within five days, reaching a three-week high on Friday. This price movement followed a generalized excitement after the US and Iran announced a ceasefire extension, which led to an 8% decline in crude Brent oil prices. Demand for SOL futures surged as open interest jumped by 20% since Sunday, causing traders to question if the SOL price is bound for $100.
SOL futures aggregate open interest rose to $4.2 billion on Friday, up from $3.5 billion on Sunday. While an increased appetite for leveraged positions indicates institutional investor participation, longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers) remain matched at all times. However, any eventual imbalance in the demand for leveraged positions should be visible within the perpetual futures markets.
Under neutral conditions, the annualized funding rate should range between 5% and 10% to compensate for the cost of capital.
Data showing a 3% rate signals low confidence from bulls, although this remains distant from the extreme fear levels seen on April 7 when SOL prices plunged below $80. A negative funding rate indicates that shorts are paying to keep positions open, which is fairly unusual in cryptocurrency markets.
Despite the recent gains, SOL has underperformed the broader cryptocurrency market by 13% in 2026. A reduced appetite for decentralized applications (DApps) likely played a part, but the Solana network remains a strong contender due to its vice-leadership position in Total Value Locked and dominance in decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes.
Solana network DApp revenues have trended down over the past few months, currently totaling nearly $16 million per week. However, this trajectory is not exclusive to Solana; DApps on the Ethereum network accrued $10 million in revenue over the past week, while BNB Chain stood at $4 million. Fading interest in DEX activity remains the primary driver behind this declining revenue across the industry.
Memecoin rally, shorts covering could send SOL to $100
Multiple memecoins jumped 40% or higher between Wednesday and Friday, which likely contributed to the heightened demand for SOL futures.
During the previous memecoin rally in early 2025, Solana emerged as a leader in terms of users and activity, especially following the launch of the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin. Consequently, any sign of increased demand for memecoins is typically viewed as a positive indicator for SOL price.
Related: Bitcoin rises, oil falls after Iran says Strait of Hormuz is open
Solana has proved itself a serious contender for the next wave of DApp users, whether centered on AI agents or speculative trading. The robustness of its validators and the integrated user experience provided by Web3 wallets make a compelling case for a sustained SOL price rally.
Ultimately, weak demand for bullish leverage on futures places little constraint on SOL regaining momentum. Reduced pressure from the war in Iran may serve as the catalyst for SOL shorts to cover their positions, providing the necessary spark for a potential upside toward $100.
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