Tesla deliverables are down year-over-year, and it continues facing headwinds in the U.S. and European markets.
As CEO Elon Musk’s feud with President Trump continues, the stock has seen heightened volatility.
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After soaring in 2023 and 2024, shares of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) were battered throughout Q1 but performed marginally better in Q2. The largest U.S. EV-maker slid into Q3 but staged a comeback. Things have been looking better of late, but over the past five trading sessions, the stock gained 3.10% after gaining 4.67% the five prior. Its recent rally has brought it out of the red on the year with a gain of 23.49% in 2025. However, since hitting its all-time high on Dec. 17, TSLA remains down 2.39%.
When the company reported Q3 earnings on Oct. 22, 2025, it announced quarterly revenue of $28.1 billion, up 12% year-over-year (YoY). However, earnings of 50 cents per share missed analysts’ estimates of 54 cents per share. Concerningly, quarterly net income fell 37% YoY to $1.37 billion.
After several quarters of weakening momentum, Tesla’s deliveries are seeing a positive break in trend, according to Canaccord. Further, the firm expects Tesla to announce new electric vehicle models soon, which should help its global sales momentum. The new models will help alleviate any post-Q3 “cliff” in the U.S. after electric vehicle tax credits go away, Canaccord believes.
Over the past decade, Tesla has suffered incredible losses that have shocked investors who had grown accustomed to the stock’s rapid appreciation over the past decade. The company’s meteoric rise has practically minted millionaires who jumped on the Musk bandwagon in the early goings. That’s certainly a move that’s come with some baggage and volatility along the way. But overall, it’s clear that Musk’s visionary status has rewarded shareholders since Tesla’s IPO on June 29, 2010.
24/7 Wall St. conducted analysis to provide more clarity. Let’s dive into whether Tesla’s troubles this year can be expected to continue, or if this is a top growth name that can rebound to new all-time highs and resume its march higher.
1. Core EV Business: Tesla’s most important business line is unsurprisingly the company’s auto business. With sales of the company’s EVs down on a year-over-year basis, and margins also declining from historically high levels following the onset of the pandemic, investors will continue to assess the company’s future prospects in proportion to how the company’s core revenue and earnings driver is performing.
2. Autonomous Driving (FSD), Robotics and More: Tesla’s value can be ascribed to what many long-term investors view as a call option on some other key growth categories CEO Elon Musk continues to work on. Aside from the company’s core electric vehicle offering, Tesla’s energy business, its FSD platform, humanoid robotics endeavors, AI verticals, and other growth categories make this stock unique in terms of the breadth and number of potential catalysts investors can look to for future growth. Of course, the extent to which these endeavors deliver boosted margins (or increased CapEx) remains to be seen.
3. Macro and Political Environment: Like it or not, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has cozied up to president Trump in a big way. This move is one that’s been broadly cheered by the overall market, at least out of the gate. Tesla stock soared following Donald Trump’s election victory, though Tesla has since given up its gains since this pivotal event, and has trended lower for seven straight weeks following the election. We’ll have to see if the Trump administration brings forward the sort of regulatory environment so many investors had hoped for in 2025 and in the years to come.
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Tesla’s stock price outlook for 2025 varies widely among analysts, reflecting uncertainties in production, market conditions, and EV advancements. Analyst price targets span a very wide range, with the most bearish analyst putting forward a $19.05 price target, and the most bullish suggesting this stock could head to $600 per share. Thus, there’s not really a true idea of where this stock is headed. And when investors think about the fact that many of these analyst projections are outdated, doing the math on where this stock could be headed over the course of the next year isn’t as easy as it seems.
It’s worth noting that analysts remain largely bullish on the stock, though. However, given how Tesla has fallen from its peak, even if the company can hit this target over the next year, it’ll still have a ways to go to make it to a new all-time high. The thing about Tesla and other high-growth stocks is that I find analysts are often chasing the returns these stocks provide. Thus, I think it’s best for most investors to steer clear of using analyst price targets as anything other than guardrails. Indeed, Tesla is one company I think is worth doing one’s own DCF analysis on and coming to one’s own price target.
In October, Stifel raised its price target on Tesla to $483 from $440 while keeping its “Buy” rating. The firm cited progress with Tesla’s Robotaxi network and full self-driving software. Nonetheless, on Sept. 22, Mizuho raised its price target on Tesla to $450 from $375 while keeping its “Outperform” rating. More recently, Canaccord raised its price target on Tesla to $490 from $333 while keeping a “Buy” rating, citing data from 30 counties showing Tesla’s deliveries are rising.
This summer, Barclays said Tesla’s Q2 earnings came in-line with estimates, highlighted by strong gross margins, but its near-term fundamentals are weakened on tax credit expirations, tariffs and reduced regulation credit sales. The “gulf” between the stock’s narrative and the company’s fundamentals has further widened, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes Tesla shares are “increasingly disconnected from fundamentals.” Tesla’s fundamentals “remain choppy” and are likely to deteriorate in the coming quarters, contends Barclays. It keeps an “Equal Weight” rating on the shares with a $275 price target.
In July, Goldman Sachs raised its price target on TSLA to $315 from $285, but maintained a “Neutral” rating after Tesla reported preliminary Q2 vehicle deliveries of about 384,000, which was down 13% year-over-year. In June, Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg raised the firm’s price target on Tesla to $475 from $350, maintaining its “Buy” following the successful launch of Robotaxi. The firm believes the rollout demonstrates “a controlled and safety-first approach,” according to the analyst, who argues that winning over regulators and public opinion is “paramount and will allow a rapid scale up if achieved.” The company continues to see sales decline in the U.S. and abroad, resulting in a series of downgrades. Also in early June, Guggenheim said the company’s fundamentals “continue to deteriorate at an alarming rate,” with “soft” Q2 delivery trends. Guggenheim reiterates a “Sell” rating on the shares with a $175 price target.
As we move through 2025, analyst opinions on where Tesla could be headed do vary. Overall, Tesla’s stock performance in 2025 is expected to be shaped by production output, market trends and advancements in EV and battery technology. Analysts project a 17.5% revenue increase to $117.2 billion, driven by growing demand and energy sector expansion. Tesla’s 2025 deliveries are forecasted at 1.95 million units by Barclays, below Bloomberg’s consensus of 2.08 million and Tesla’s earlier estimates.
Despite a 62.5% stock surge in 2024, an $80 billion market value drop raised concerns. Musk remains optimistic, expecting a 20% to 30% delivery increase, though management later emphasized a “return to growth.” Additionally, competition from Waymo and declining registrations in Germany, France and California present challenges. Tesla’s push into AI and autonomous driving, including plans for a Robotaxi launch, could be a game-changer, but the company recently saw its share of the EV market slip below 50% in California.
To compound matters, the stock is losing favorability among the smart money. Institutional holdings for TSLA are down t0 47.91%.
Wall Street analysts have assigned TSLA a median one-year price target of $395.54, representing potential downside of 15.54% from today’s price. Of the 34 analysts covering Tesla, the stock currently receives a consensus “Hold” rating, with 14 analysts rating it a “Buy,” 10 rating it a “Hold” and 10 rating it a “Sell.”
24/7 Wall St.‘s 12-month price target for Tesla is also bearish at $352.99, which represents potential downside of 20.71% from the current share price. Those figures are based on the company seeing projected revenue growth climb from $112.091 billion in 2025 to $297.430 billion in 2030, alongside normalized EPS growth of $2.85 in 2025 to $11.61 in 2030.
