Private credit and the 2026 World Cup may seem worlds apart, but both hinge on manager selection, navigating an increasingly crowded field and adapting to changing conditions, according to AlbaCore Capital Group.
The World Cup has shown how quickly momentum can shift. A single goal, injury or tactical adjustment can alter the trajectory of an entire tournament.
The same is true for private credit, with the huge momentum of the industry being challenged in the first half of 2026, and in the latter half of 2025, by a range of instances. Those including AI disruption, business development company (BDC) redemptions and concerns over private credit liquidity, according to David Allen, managing partner and chief investment officer at AlbaCore Capital Group.
Allen said the period in which private credit delivered strong returns across much of the market between 2022 and 2024 has given way to an environment where manager selection and underwriting discipline matter significantly more.
As macroeconomic conditions become more challenging, with renewed inflation concerns, conflict in the Middle East and energy price volatility, the ability to identify resilient business models and distinguish them from those more vulnerable to economic pressures has become increasingly important.
Drawing a parallel to the World Cup, the same resilience is needed for football teams adapting to changing weather, climates, and altitude, Allen said.
“It is to possess the flexibility and resilience to perform under a range of conditions,” he said.
“In many respects, the period has been less about a deterioration in fundamentals and more about increased divergence between winners and losers.”
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Allen also pointed to the advantage enjoyed by host nations at the World Cup in the US, Canada and Mexico. Home teams have benefited from familiar conditions, local support and, in some cases, the altitude of venues such as the Azteca, unless against England.
He argues Europe enjoys a similar home advantage in private credit.
As BDCs have experienced investor outflows, they have pulled back from lending into the European market, easing competition and allowing pricing and lending terms to improve.
At the same time, many of the characteristics that have historically distinguished European direct lending remain intact, including tighter documentation, lower EBITDA adjustments and a stronger emphasis on downside protection.
Read more: European CLO issuance soars as direct lending cools
“As we reach half-time for the year, headline spreads are broadly unchanged despite a six-month period which left many market participants wishing for a hydration break,” said Allen. “Yet despite the many swings in sentiment this year, credit fundamentals have generally remained more resilient than headlines suggest.
“The lesson, in our view, is that technical market pressures and fundamental credit quality should not be confused.”
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